Abstract: Potential vegetation, as an important part of the terrestrial ecosystem, could accurately reflect the local climate, and studying the distribution characters of potential vegetation would provide relevant references for the evaluation of ecological engineering. In this paper, the forecast data computed by RegCM3 model under scenario A2, was selected based on the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) to simulate the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in China from 2071 to 2100. The results indicated that all potential vegetation regions in China would change at different levels and directions. The temperate forest, which is the dominating part of Chinese potential vegetation, would change to colder and drier direction, so would tundra and alpine steppe. Frigid desert, tropical forest, and savanna all showed a moving trend to colder and wetter direction, the semi-desert vegetation mainly distributed in warm-humid regions, while steppe, temperate humid grassland, and warm desert showed a moving trend to warm-dry direction. Significant movement of spatial distribution center would occur for temperate humid grassland and warm desert. These results revealed the changes of potential vegetation in China for the 21st century, which can provide potential references for future national ecological construction strategy in the 21st century.

Key words: vertical variation., the Loess Plateau, mountain apple orchard, soil moisture, seasonal variation