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Prediction of potential suitable distribution of endangered plant Kingdonia uniflora in China with MaxEnt.

XU Jun, CAO Bo, BAI Cheng-ke**   

  1. (Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Development in Qinba Regions, College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China)
  • Online:2015-12-10 Published:2015-12-10

Abstract: Kingdonia uniflora Balf. f. et W. W. Smith, a perennial herb, is listed as an endangered plant of the national secondgrade protection of China. In recent years, human activities (e.g. excessive deforestation and aggravating habitat fragmentation) have caused rapid shrinking of the distribution range of K. uniflora, thereby making this species being under serious risk of extinction. Prediction of potential suitable distribution of K. uniflora has important values for reasonable conservation and utilization of natural resource. In this study, 64 specimen records and 14 environmental factors were used to predict the potential suitable distribution and the key factors determining such distribution areas in China based on MaxEnt modeling and geographic information system (GIS). The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to produce modeling reliability of MaxEnt. As a result, the modeling process gave an AUC of 0.990 with high precision. Our results also showed that the highly potential distribution was mainly located in the north slope of Qinling Mountain in Shaanxi Province (Mei County, Taibai County), Qionglai Mountain (Li County, Maerkang County) and Daliang Mountain (Mabian County) in Sichuan Province, and the border zone including Dalou Mountain (Jinsha County) and Wumeng Mountain (Hezhang County) in the northeast of Yunnan and the northwest of Guizhou (suitability index >0.5). The Jackknife test analysis indicated that the main environmental factors determining the potential suitable distribution were annual average precipitation (contribution rate, 33.1%), altitude (22.3%), temperature seasonality (11.4%), precipitation seasonality (7.2%), topsoil pH (5.4%), average monthly precipitation of January (5.1%) and topsoil gravel content (4.9%). The statistical analysis of environmental variables in highly potential areas demonstrated that K. uniflora prefers to grow in areas with high altitude (1646-2810 m), high annual average precipitation (856 mm), moderate average monthly temperature of January (-7.2 ℃) and topsoil pH 6.89. These results will provide valuable reference for conservation of the wild resource of K. uniflora as well as the establishment of nature reserves.

Key words: model of light-use efficiency., mechanistic model of light-response, light-use efficiency, tomato