Abstract: Understanding the distribution characteristics and dynamics of the regional keystone species is important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem recovery. Quercus phillyraeoides is a widespread woody species in East Asia subtropics evergreen broadleaved forest with important ecological functions and economic values. In this study, the current (1950-2000) and future (2060-2080) potential distribution patterns were analyzed using MaxEnt based on the 134 distribution sites of Q. phillyraeoides and 9 environmental variables. We also tested the effects of climate variables on the potential distributions of Q. phillyraeoides using percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test. The current potential distribution of Q. phillyraeoides is mostly overlapped with its natural distribution. The most suitable areas are mainly located in East China, Southwest China and Japan. The precipitation in the warmest quarter and the maximum temperature of the warmest month are the two key factors of the potential distributions of Q. phillyraeoides. Its suitable distribution areas will decrease sharply when CO₂ concentration increases in future, especially those located in southeast coastal areas. The results could provide important information on future biodiversity conservation and ecosystem recovery of the evergreen broad-leaved forest under the background of global climate change.

Key words: pollen germination, L. sagitta, prezygotic reproductive isolation, Ligularia virgaurea, pollen-stigma of compatibility