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Subtractive statistical diagnostic model of soil moisture.

LIU Shu-tian1,2, ZHENG Hong-yan1, WANG Shuo-jin2, HOU Yan-lin1,2*, DING Jian1, MI Chang-hong1, HUANG Zhi-ping1, HOU Xian-da2#br#   

  1. (1Agro-Environmental Protection Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Tianjin 300191, China;  2Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf (Guangxi Teachers Education University); Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation (Guangxi Teachers Education University), Nanning 530001, China).
  • Online:2017-12-10 Published:2017-12-10

Abstract: So far, the moisture diagnosis and prediction model, due to lack of versatility, is difficult to apply. This paper introduces the subtractive statistical model of the six independent models in the feature column of this issue. The change of soil water content between two times of monitoring is the dependent variable in the subtractive statistical method, and the initial soil water content and the precipitation (including irrigation quantity) are the independent variables. Models were established by the data of 87 monitoring sites in 23 counties from 7 provinces during 2012-2014, and validated by the data of 2015. The results showed that the qualified rate of diagnosis and prediction of the subtractive statistical model was about 90%, indicating that the model was applicable. The main reason responsible for the high qualified rate was that the model followed the law of mass conservation and statistics. The errors of the subtractive statistical method were mainly derived from long-distance data of precipitation and lack of irrigation records. Compared with the traditional models, the subtractive statistic method has the following characteristics: less parameters, easy to obtain parameters, parameters having statistical significance, covering full scope of precipitation, and not affected by underlying surface factors. In conclusion, the subtractive statistical model is scientific and practical for the diagnosis and prediction model of soil moisture, and can be used alone.

Key words: climate change, double cropping rice, climatic division, Guangdong., maturity