Abstract: To evaluate the impacts of future climate change on rice yields in Fujian Province, this study classified Fujian Province into three rice regions, and chose 66 sites and 7 representative rice varieties as study subject. Based on BCC_CSM (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model) climate model under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: Stable emission path RCP4.5 and high emission path RCP8.5, we simulated the rice yields with CERES-Rice model under rainfed and irrigated conditions. The results showed that under the future climate change scenarios, with the increase of average temperature in growth period to some extent, the growth period of rice in Fujian Province would be shortened obviously. Without direct effect of CO₂ elevation, the simulated rice yields would decrease by no more than 12% as compared to the baseline, and the rainfed rice was slightly worse than irrigated rice. In the meantime, different scenarios have different results, and higher yield decrease was simulated under high emission path RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 climate scenarios. When the fertilization effect of CO₂ was considered, the simulated yields were more optimistic with an increase by 15.2% at most of the study sites.

Key words: litter, ecological stoichiometry, soil, stand age, leaf, Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica