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Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 1152-1162.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.036

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Simulation of rice yield response to elevated carbon dioxide and temperature for different cultivars in the cold region of China.

ZHANG Na1, YAO Feng-mei1*, ZHANG Jia-hua2   

  1. 1 College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2 Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
  • Received:2015-08-10 Revised:2016-01-30 Online:2016-04-22 Published:2016-04-22
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31571565), One Hundred Person Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y24002101A), Project of CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence (Y3YI2701KB) and 1-3-5 Cultivate Key Project of CAS-RADI (Y3ZZ15101A).2015-08-10 Received, 2016-01-30 Accepted.*

Abstract: This paper was aimed to assess the potential impacts of rising temperature and CO2 concentration on the production of different rice cultivars in the cold region of China, Heilongjiang Province. Total three representative rice varieties with different maturity types were selected to conduct the simulation experiments according to the required accumulated temperature. Daily weather data and open top chamber (OTC) test yield data for year 2013 were used to initialize CERES-Rice model parameters. CERES-Rice model was executed to simulate the influence of climate change on early-mature, mid-mature and late-mature rice production under fixed weather scenarios, which consisted of three CO2 concentrations (i.e. 390, 450 and 550 μmol·mol-1) and four temperature rise levels (i.e. 1, 2, 3 and 4 ℃). Results showed that with the increase in concentration of CO2, the rice yield would increase. With the rise in temperature, early-mature rice yield would decline significantly. However, mid-mature and late-mature rice yield would increase at first and then gra-dually decline. Without considering the effect of CO2 fertilization, except that the medium and late varieties under 1 ℃ warming would slightly increase the yield by 3.1% and 0.27% respectively, yield under the other treatments would reduce. The most serious reduction occurred to early-mature rice, which decreased up to 57.7% when the temperature increased by 4 ℃, while mid-mature rice and late-mature rice yields decreased about 10%. Considering the effect of CO2 fertilization, mid-mature and late-mature rice yields would even increase by 0.75% and 3.2% at 450 μmol·mol-1 CO2 under 2 ℃ warming, respectively. Mid-mature rice yield would still increase 4.5% under 3 ℃ warming and late-mature rice yield would also increase 0.39% under 4 ℃ warming at 550 μmol·mol-1 CO2. However, it was identified that early-mature rice yield would always sharply decrease with temperature increasing regardless of the effect of CO2 fertilization. Similarly, CO2 fertilization effects could improve rice yield to certain extent with temperature increasing. However, the diffe-rence among the varieties in response to CO2 fertilization effect was not significant. The contribution rate of CO2 fertilization effect on rice yield was less than 10%.