Abstract: Clarifying the regional natural capital utilization and its spatial effects and influencing factors has important theoretical and practical significance for regional sustainable development. Here, we used a three-dimensional ecological footprint model, exploratory spatial data analysis, a spatial Markov chain, and a spatial panel Durbin model to explore the spatial effects and influencing factors of overall and subcategory natural capital flow and stock occupancy of 112 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018. The results showed that the total, per capita, and subcategory natural capital flow and stock occupancy increased during the study period. Most of the regions with low overall and subcategory natural flow occupancy were located in the East, whereas most of the regions with high overall and subcategory natural flow occupancy were mostly located in the Central and Wes-tern area. However, their stock occupancy behaved differently. Except for farmland stock, the overall and subcategory natural capital flow and stock occupancy showed spatial agglomeration. The traditional and spatial Markov chain presented a “Matthew effect” and a “spatial spillover effect” in natural capital flow and stock occupancy. Economic growth and industrial structure positively affected natural capital flow and stock occupancy. Population growth positively affected natural capital flow occupancy. Urbanization rate negatively affected natural capital flow occupancy, and positively impacted natural capital stock occupancy. Government intervention negatively affected the farmland flow and fossil fuels land stock occupancy. Environmental governance negatively affected the natural capital flow occupancy, but positively affected the natural capital stock occupancy. Environmental pollution positively affected natural capital flow and stock occupancy.

Key words: three-dimensional ecological footprint, natural capital utilization, space Markov chain, spatial spillover effect, Yangtze River Economic Belt