Abstract: Inner Mongolia grassland is rich in natural vegetation and mineral resources. Based on Landsat5/7/8 NDVI data, we used pixel binary model to invert vegetation coverage of Inner Mongolia grassland area, investigated the stability, spatial distribution, and future evolution trend of vegetation coverage by using Sen+MK and Hurst index, and analyzed the driving factors of the spatial differentiation of vegetation coverage by the optimal parameters-based geographical detector. The results showed that vegetation coverage of Inner Mongolia grassland showed an increasing trend from 2006 to 2020, and the overall spatial pattern was high in the east and low in the west, mainly with great fluctuation. The regions with slight or obvious improvement characteristics (64.8%) were much more than those with slight or severe degradation characteristics (23.2%). Compared with that in the past 15 years, the proportion of degraded vegetation in the future is expected to increase to 36.6%. The central part of Xilin Gol League and Wulanqab in the central grassland area, the western part of Hulunbuir and Erdos in the eastern grassland area, and Wuhai in the western grassland area were at the risk of degradation, which should be paid more attention. Precipitation was the dominant factor of spatial differentiation in Inner Mongolia grassland, while soil type, land use, and air temperature had the most significant synergistic effect.

Key words: vegetation coverage, Inner Mongolia grassland, optimal parameters-based geographical detector, spatio-temporal evolution, driving force