Distribution simulation of Gentiana rhodantha in Southwest China and assessment of climate change impact

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201708.017

Abstract

Abstract: Based on 230 presence point records and 33 climatic variables, the potential distribution of Gentiana rhodantha during the Mid Holocene (about 6000 years ago), current (1950-2000) and future (2050s and 2070s) was simulated using the MaxEnt model. The main climatic factors affecting Gentiana rhodantha distribution were screened by multivariate statistical analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis to investigate the sensitivity of different distribution areas to climate change.The areas under the curve indexes (AUC) of training data and test data were 0.942 and 0.849, respectively, which indicated the prediction accuracy was high. Five climatic factors, namely, the monthly average maximum temperature in July, the minimum temperature in June, July and August, and isothermality, showed most contribution to the MaxEnt model (cumulatively 59.9%). Area of suitable habitats retreated first and then expanded with climate change in the future. Up to 2070s, the total area of suitable habitats would decrease by 15.0% under RCP 8.5 compared with the current distribution, but areas of suitable habitats and highly suitable habitats in Yunnan would increase by 32.8% and 32.7%, respectively. The warm and moist climate was suitable for G. rhodantha growth. Lower-altitude regions were more sensitive to climate change, which resulted in the obvious reduction of suitable habitat areas. The areas of suitable habitats in high altitude region, however, would increase with the improvement of temperature and precipitation condition. With the change of global climate, the main distribution area of G. rhodantha would be projected to migrate westward and expand to higher elevations.

SHEN Tao, ZHANG Ji, SHEN Shi-kang, ZHAO Yan-li, WANG Yuan-zhong. Distribution simulation of Gentiana rhodantha in Southwest China and assessment of climate change impact[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(8): 2499-2508.

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