GIS-based risk assessment of the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production: A case study of the basin area in Sichuan Province, China

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201708.027

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production in the basin area of Sichuan Province, we established a general climate risk evaluation model based on the data of daily precipitation, sunshine hours, hydrology, topography, and crop acreage of 102 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014. This model analyzed the data from the angles of climate disaster components, regional environmental conditions and the features of hazard bearing body to produce an index that reflected the level of risk. Using the index, we divided the basin area into five risk zones. The results indicated that the areas with the highest risk of continuous rain in autumn were the flat and hilly areas in the southwest, the shallow hilly areas in the south, the hilly areas in the northeast, as well as the regions along Jialing River and Qujiang River. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the forecast and defense countermeasures of autumn continuous rain to these regions. The edges of the basin belonged to low risk zones due to their mountainous topography and limited availability of arable lands, and the damage of continuous rain was not heavy. The risk levels for the rest of basin ranged from relatively low to relatively high.

ZHANG Han, ZHENG Hao, WANG Ming-tian, YOU Chao. GIS-based risk assessment of the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production: A case study of the basin area in Sichuan Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(8): 2569-2576.

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