Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201802.006

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a^-1 under RCP_2.6, RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP_4.5, under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a^-1. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP_8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP_8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP_4.5 and RCP_2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m^-2·10 a^-1 under the RCP_2.6 and RCP_4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

Key words: Pinus tabuliformis, LPJ-GUESS model, climate change., net primary productivity

HUO Xiao-ying, PENG Shou-zhang, REN Jing-yu, CAO Yang, CHEN Yun-ming. Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 29(2): 412-420.

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