Abstract: Coastal estuarine wetland ecosystem has strong ability for carbon (C) storage and sequestration. Accurate assessment of C sequestration and its environmental impact factors is the basis of scientific protection and mana-gement of coastal estuarine wetlands. Taking the Panjin reed (Phragmites australis) wetland as the object, we used terrestrial ecosystem model, together with Mann-Kendall mutation test, statistical analysis methods, and scenario simulation experiment, to analyze the temporal characteristics, stability, changing trend of net ecosystem production (NEP) of wetlands and the contribution rate of environmental impact factors to NEP during 1971 to 2020. The results showed that the annual average NEP of Panjin reed wetland was 415.51 g C·m^-2·a^-1 during 1971 to 2020, with a steady increase rate of 1.7 g C·m^-2·a^-1, which would still have a continuous increasing trend in the future. The annual average NEP in spring, summer, autumn, and winter was 33.95, 418.05, -18.71, and -17.78 g C·m^-2·a^-1, with an increase rate of 0.35, 1.26, 0.14 and -0.06 g C·m^-2·a^-1, respectively. In the future, NEP would show an increasing trend in both spring and summer, but a declining trend in both autumn and winter. The contribution rates of environmental impact factors to NEP of Panjin reed wetland depended on temporal scale. At the interannual scale, the contribution rate of precipitation was the highest (37.1%), followed by CO₂ (28.4%), air temperature (25.1%) and photosynthetically active radiation (9.4%). Precipitation mainly affected NEP in both spring and autumn with the contribution rates of 49.5% and 38.8%, while CO₂ concentration (36.9%) and air temperature (-86.7%) were dominant in summer and winter, respectively.

Key words: reed wetland, net ecosystem productivity, impact mechanism, TEM model