基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.017

应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 3731-3739.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.017

基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警

徐美¹, 刘春腊^2*, 李丹³, 钟晓林¹

1 中南林业科技大学旅游学院, 长沙 410004
2 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙 410081
3 中南林业科技大学计算机与信息工程学院, 长沙 410004

出版日期:2017-11-18 发布日期:2017-11-18
通讯作者: *mail:liuchunla111@163.com
作者简介:徐美, 女, 1983年生, 博士, 讲师.主要从事旅游地理与生态经济研究.E-mail:461355118@qq.com
基金资助:
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(41601143)、湖南省自然科学基金项目(2015JJ3179)、湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(15C1447)、2016年度湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会一般课题项目(XSPYBZZ064)和中南林业科技大学青年科学研究基金项目(2015QZ004)资助

Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model

XU Mei¹, LIU Chun-la^2*, LI Dan³, ZHONG Xiao-lin¹

1 College of Tourism, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
2 College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
3 College of Computer and Information Project, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China

Online:2017-11-18 Published:2017-11-18
Contact: *mail:liuchunla111@163.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601143), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2015JJ3179), the Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Hunan Province (15C1447), the General Project of Hunan Social Science Achievements Review Committee in 2016 (XSPYBZZ064) and the Youth Science Research Foundation of Central South University of Forestry and Technology (2015QZ004)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 旅游生态安全预警对旅游地协调生态环境保护与旅游产业快速发展的矛盾,推进区域社会经济持续健康发展具有重要意义.本文基于DPSIR模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5方面构建了张家界市旅游生态安全预警指标体系,在此基础上,运用改进TOPSIS法对2001—2014年张家界市的旅游生态安全警情格局进行评估,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对其2015—2020年的警情演变趋势进行预测.结果表明: 总体上,2001—2014年,张家界市的旅游生态安全贴近度呈略微上升态势,警度处于“中警”.就各子系统而言,2001—2014年,张家界市旅游生态安全驱动力系统和压力系统的警度呈上升趋势,由“轻警”演变成“重警”;状态系统和影响系统的警度变化不大,一直处于“中警”;响应系统的警度呈下降趋势,由“巨警”转变成“无警”.按现状发展态势,2015—2020年,张家界市的旅游生态安全贴近度将进一步上升,警度将由“中警”向“轻警”转变,但协调旅游发展与生态建设和环境保护关系的任务依然较艰巨.

Abstract: Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the “moderate warning”. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from “light warning” to “heavy warning”; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the “moderate warning”; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from “huge warning” to “no warning” during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from “moderate warning” into “light warning”, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

徐美, 刘春腊, 李丹, 钟晓林. 基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警[J]. 应用生态学报, 2017, 28(11): 3731-3739.

XU Mei, LIU Chun-la, LI Dan, ZHONG Xiao-lin. Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(11): 3731-3739.

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基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警

Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model

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