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未来气候变化情景下河南省粮食安全气候承载力评估

1. 1河南省气候中心, 郑州 450003;
2中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室, 郑州 450003;
3洛阳市气象局, 河南洛阳 471000;
4河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003;
5安徽省气候中心, 合肥 230031
• 收稿日期:2019-10-15 出版日期:2020-03-15 发布日期:2020-03-15
• 通讯作者: E-mail: jixingjie2004@aliyun.com
• 作者简介:姬兴杰, 男, 1982年生, 博士, 正研级高级工程师。主要从事气候变化与气象灾害研究。E-mail: ji-xingjie2004@aliyun.com
• 基金资助:
本文由国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0301104)、河南省气象局科研项目(KM201811)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201809)资助

Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province, China under the future climate change scenarios

JI Xing-jie1,2*, XU Yan-hong3, ZUO Xuan1, FANG Wen-song2,4, LU Yan-yu5

1. 1Henan Provincial Climate Centre, Zhengzhou 450003, China;
2Key Laboratory of Agrometerological Ensuring and Applied Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China;
3Luoyang Meteorological Bureau, Luoyang 471000, Henan, China;
4Henan Institute of Meteorological Science, Zhengzhou 450003, China;
5Anhui Provincial Climate Centre, Hefei 230031, China
• Received:2019-10-15 Online:2020-03-15 Published:2020-03-15
• Contact: E-mail: jixingjie2004@aliyun.com
• Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Project (2017YFD0301104), the Scientific Research Project of Henan Meteorological Administration (KM201811) and the Climate Change Special Foundation of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201809)

Abstract: To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm-2 from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm-2, which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (Cmax) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, Cmax under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.