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应用生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 1223-1232.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.016

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黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝时序特征及其对产量的影响

李秀芬1,2, 郭昭滨3, 朱海霞1,2, 王萍1,2, 宫丽娟1,2, 姜丽霞1,2, 赵慧颖1,2*   

  1. 1黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨 150030;
    2中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室, 哈尔滨 150030;
    3黑龙江省应急救援保障中心, 哈尔滨 150000
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-28 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-04-20
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail: zhaohhyy2008@aliyun.com
  • 作者简介:李秀芬, 女, 1973年生, 硕士, 正高级工程师。主要从事生态与农业气象、气候资源及变化研究。E-mail: ge-2003@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(31671576,31671575,31801253)、中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目(stqx2019zd02)、黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(D2018007)和中国气象局预报核心技术项目(CMAHX20160205)资助

Time-series characteristics of drought and flood in spring soybean growing season and its effect on soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province, China

LI Xiu-fen1,2, GUO Zhao-bin3, ZHU Hai-xia1,2, WANG Ping1,2, GONG Li-juan1,2, JIANG Li-xia1,2, ZHAO Hui-ying1,2*   

  1. 1Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 150030, China;
    2 Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology in Northeast China, China Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, China;
    3Heilongjiang Province Emergency Rescue Support Center, Harbin 150000, China.
  • Received:2019-11-28 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-04-20
  • Contact: *E-mail: zhaohhyy2008@aliyun.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31671576, 31671575, 31801253), the Open Research Fund Project of Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology in Northeast China, China Meteorological Administration (stqx2019zd02), the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (D2018007) and the Forecast Core Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration (CMAHX20160205).

摘要: 气候变化背景下黑龙江省降水时空分布不均,旱涝转换频繁,不利于黑龙江省的大豆安全生产。为研究黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝对大豆产量的影响机制,基于黑龙江省60个气象站点1961—2018年逐日降水量数据和同期大豆单产数据,选取标准化降水指数(SPI)为旱涝判识指数,分析黑龙江省大豆生长季旱涝的时序特征,以及大豆不同生育阶段旱涝对其产量的影响。结果表明: 1961—2018年,大豆生长季干旱影响范围整体呈微弱的减小趋势,雨涝影响范围整体呈现弱的增加趋势;而同期干旱和雨涝强度总体均呈微弱的增加趋势,以雨涝强度稍强;干旱和雨涝同时发生的几率占比60.3%。大豆生长季或将进入一个较湿润阶段,2012—2018年间,雨涝的影响范围和发生强度均明显高于干旱,有6年均发生了全域性或区域性雨涝,其中,5年发生中度雨涝。不同区域大豆生长季旱涝对其产量影响程度有所差异,西北部、北部和东部地区雨涝的影响均明显大于干旱的影响,中部地区干旱和雨涝的影响程度相差不大,西南部、南部、东南部地区干旱的影响远大于雨涝的影响。在大豆开花-鼓粒期,旱涝与大豆产量的波动密切相关,西北部、西南部、中部、南部、东南部地区降水正常略偏多对大豆增产有利,但中度及以上雨涝仍会造成大豆减产;北部地区大豆产量波动主要受雨涝影响严重,东部地区干旱和雨涝对大豆产量波动造成的影响程度相似。

Abstract: Under the background of climate change, the spatial-temporal distribution of precipita-tion in Heilongjiang Province is uneven, and drought and flood frequently change, which is not conducive to the safety of soybean production for the province. To clarify the influence mechanism of drought and flood in the growing season on soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province, we analyzed the time-series characteristics of drought and flood in soybean growing season and its effect on soybean yield in different growth stages, based on data of daily precipitation from 60 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2018 and soybean yield in the same period, with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) as the drought and flood evaluation index. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2018, the influence range of drought in soybean growing season in Heilongjiang Province showed a weak decreasing trend, while that of flood showed a weak increasing trend. In the same period, the intensity of both drought and flood showed a weak increasing trend, with slightly stronger role of flood intensity. The probability of the co-occurrence of drought and flood accounted for 60.3%. The soybean growing season in Heilongjiang Province may become wetter. From 2012 to 2018, the influence range and occurrence intensity of flood were significantly higher than that of drought, six years of the whole or regional flood occurred, in which five years were moderate degrees. The effects of drought and flood on soybean yield differed across regions in soybean growing season. The effect of flood on soybean yield was significantly stronger than that of drought in the Northwest, North and East, and were similar in the Midland, while in the Southwest, South and Southeast, the effect of drought was much greater than that of flood. The fluctuation of soybean yield was closely related to drought and flood during bloom-seed-filling period. Among them, in the Northwest, Southwest, Midland, South and Southeast of Heilongjiang, soybean yield would reach a high level when there was a little bit more precipitation, but the moderate and above-moderate levels of flood would cause the reduction. In the North, the fluctuation of soybean yield was mainly affected by flood, while in the East, the effects of drought and flood on soybean yield were similar.