关键词: 黄土高原, 气候变化, 马铃薯, 生育, 块茎形成, 日平均气温, 地理加权回归克里格, 海南岛, 线性回归

Abstract: Based on the 1988-2008 located observation and 2007-2008 encrypted observation of potato growth and the 1957-2008 meteorological observation in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, this paper studied the effects of climate change on the potato growth in this region. In 1957-2008, the annual precipitation in this region had a descending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual precipitation change curves being -13.359 mm·(10 a)^-1, while the annual mean temperature displayed an ascending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual mean temperature change curves being 0.239 ℃·(10 a)^-1. During potato growth period, the aridity index displayed a marked ascending trend, and the linear fitting rate of the aridity index change curves was 0.102·(10 a)^-1. The growth rate of potato tuber became faster from the 96th day after sowing, reached the maximum on the 110th day, and turned slower from the 124th day. The interval from sowing to seedling emergence was shortened by 1-2 d·(10 a)^-1, and that from inflorescence formation to reaping and of whole growth period was lengthened by 9-10 d·(10 a)^-1. In the study region, climate warming shortened the vegetative growth stage, but lengthened the reproductive growth stage and whole growth period of potato.

Key words: Loess Plateau, climate change, potato, growth, tuber formation, daily mean temperature, geographically weighted regression-Kriging, Hainan Island, linear regression.