关键词: 内生经济增长, 能源消费, 水泥生产, 碳排放, 森林碳汇

Abstract: By using IPCC carbon emission calculation formula (2006 edition), economy-carbon emission dynamic model, and cement carbon emission model, a regional carbon emission calculation framework was established, and, taking Guangdong Province as a case, its energy consumption carbon emission, cement production CO₂ emission, and forest carbon sink values in 2008-2050 were predicted, based on the socio-economic statistical data, energy consumption data, cement production data, and forest carbon sink data of the Province. In 2008-2050, the cement production CO₂ emission in the Province would be basically stable, with an annual carbon emission being 10-15 Mt C, the energy consumption carbon emission and the total carbon emission would be in inverse U-shape, with the peaks occurred in 2035 and 2036, respectively, and the carbon emission intensity would be decreased constantly while the forest carbon sink would have a fluctuated decline. It was feasible and reasonable to use the regional carbon emission calculation framework established in this paper to calculate the carbon emission in Guangdong Province.

Key words: endogenous economic growth, energy consumption, cement production, carbon emission, forest carbon sink