四川省盆地区玉米干旱灾害风险评估及区划

应用生态学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (10): 2803-2811.

四川省盆地区玉米干旱灾害风险评估及区划

王明田^1,2,张玉芳²,马均^1**,刘娟³,李金建²,陈东东²

(¹四川农业大学水稻研究所，成都 611130； ²四川省农业气象中心，成都 610072； ³四川省大气探测中心，成都 610072)

出版日期:2012-10-18 发布日期:2012-10-18

Risk assessment and regionalization of maize drought disasters in Sichuan Basin, Southeast China.

WANG Ming-tian^1,2, ZHANG Yu-fang², MA Jun¹, LIU Juan³, LI Jin-jian², CHEN Dong-dong²

(¹Rice Research Institute, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; ²Sichuan Agrometeorological Center, Chengdu 610072, China; ³Sichuan Technical Center for Atmospheric Sounding, Chengdu 610072, China)

Online:2012-10-18 Published:2012-10-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用四川省盆地区玉米产量资料、生育期资料和相关气象资料，建立了适用于四川省盆地区玉米干旱风险评估的气候干旱风险模型、作物干旱风险模型、产量灾损风险模型、抗灾性能模型和相应的指标体系，并构建了四川省盆地区玉米旱灾综合风险评估模型，确定了综合风险区划指标.结果表明：四川省盆地区玉米各项风险评估指标具有明显的区域差异和一定的连片性；玉米旱灾综合风险评价指标，可将四川省盆地区玉米种植区划分为高、中、低3个风险区，其中，风险高值区主要集中在盆西北大部、盆中及盆南部分地区，风险中值区主要分布在盆北及盆南部分地区，风险低值区主要分布在盆东北、盆西南及盆东南部分地区.

Abstract: Based on the information of maize yield, phonological period, and related weather data, four models (those of climatic drought risk, crop drought risk, yield loss risk, and drought resistant capability) applicable for the assessment of maize drought risk in Sichuan Basin and the corresponding index systems were established, and a comprehensive model for assessing the maize drought disasters in the Basin was constructed, with the comprehensive index for the risk regionalization of the maize drought disasters determined. The values of the indices for assessing the maize drought risk in the Basin differed obviously with different regions, but showed similarity in some areas. The Sichuan Basin was divided into three regions, with high, medium and low maize drought risk, respectively. The region with high risk was mainly in the most areas of northwest basin, the middle basin, and parts of the south basin of Sichuan, the region with medium risk was in the north basin and some parts of the south basin, and the region with low risk was in the northeast and southwest basin, and parts of the southeast basin.

王明田1,2,张玉芳2,马均1**,刘娟3,李金建2,陈东东2. 四川省盆地区玉米干旱灾害风险评估及区划[J]. 应用生态学报, 2012, 23(10): 2803-2811.

WANG Ming-tian1,2, ZHANG Yu-fang2, MA Jun1, LIU Juan3, LI Jin-jian2, CHEN Dong-dong2. Risk assessment and regionalization of maize drought disasters in Sichuan Basin, Southeast China.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 23(10): 2803-2811.