气候变化影响下大兴安岭地区21世纪森林火险等级变化预测

应用生态学报

气候变化影响下大兴安岭地区21世纪森林火险等级变化预测

杨光^1，2,舒立福²,邸雪颖^1**

(¹东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040; ²中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所/国家林业局森林保护学重点开放性实验室, 北京 100091)

出版日期:2012-12-18 发布日期:2012-12-18

Prediction on the changes of forest fire danger rating in Great Xing’an Mountain region of Northeast China in the 21stcentury under effects of climate change.

YANG Guang^1，2, SHU Li-fu², DI Xue-ying^1

(¹School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China; ²State Forestry Administration Key Open Laboratory of Forest Protection, Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China)

Online:2012-12-18 Published:2012-12-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于HadCM3模式输出的A2a和B2a情景下气候基准时段(1961—1990年)与未来不同时段(2010—2039年，2040—2069年,2070—2099年)的气候情景数据,结合Delta、WGEN降尺度方法和加拿大火险天气指标系统,划分了黑龙江大兴安岭地区森林火险等级,预估了研究区2010—2099年森林火险等级相对于基准年的变化,分析了森林火险等级长期预测的不确定性.结果表明: 气候变化影响下,研究区21世纪平均极高、很高、中等火险的年均日数呈上升趋势,高、低火险的年均日数呈降低趋势.与基准年相比,A2a和B2a情景下研究区2040—2069年极高和很高火险的年均日数分别增加了43和36 d,2070—2099年分别增加了62和61 d.

Abstract: Based on the A2a and B2a climatic scenarios for both the baseline period (1961-1990) and the future scenario periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) from the Hadley Centre’s General Circulation, and by using Delta method, WGEN downscaling methods, and Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, this paper classified the forest fire dangers in Great Xing’an Mountains region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, predicted the changes of the forest fire danger rating in the period 2010-2099 relative to baseline period (1961-1990), and analyzed the uncertainty of the longterm prediction of forest fire danger rating. It was predicted that under the background of climate warming, the mean annual days of extremely high, very high, and medium forest dangers in study region in the 21st century all showed an increasing trend, while the mean annual days of high and low forest dangers were in adverse. Relative to the baseline period of 1961-1990, the mean annual days of extremely high and very high forest dangers in the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a would be increased by 43 and 36, and 62 and 61, respectively.

杨光1，2,舒立福2,邸雪颖1**. 气候变化影响下大兴安岭地区21世纪森林火险等级变化预测[J]. 应用生态学报.

YANG Guang1，2, SHU Li-fu2, DI Xue-ying1. Prediction on the changes of forest fire danger rating in Great Xing’an Mountain region of Northeast China in the 21stcentury under effects of climate change.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.