基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理

应用生态学报

基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理

陆化杰^1,2,3,4,陈新军^1,2,3,4**,李纲^1,2,3,4,曹杰^5

(¹国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306； ^2上海海洋大学海洋科学学院，上海 201306； ^3上海海洋大学大洋生物资源可持续开发和利用上海市高校重点实验室，上海 201306； ^4上海海洋大学大洋渔业可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室，上海 201306； ^5美国缅因大学海洋科学学院，美国缅因州 04469)

出版日期:2013-07-18 发布日期:2013-07-18

Stock assessment and management for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on Bayesian Schaefer model.

LU Hua-jie^1,2,3,4, CHEN Xin-jun^1,2,3,4, LI Gang^1,2,3,4, CAO Jie⁵

(¹National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China; ²College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; ^3Shanghai Education Commission Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Resources Exploitation, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; ⁴Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; ⁵School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Maine 04469, USA)

Online:2013-07-18 Published:2013-07-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用基于贝叶斯统计方法的Schaefer模型对西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源量进行评估，并对评估结果进行风险分析.结果表明：正态分布方案和基准方案两个模型参数的预测值及估算的生物学参考点接近，但均大于对数正态分布方案.3种方案下，2001—2010年的捕捞死亡率都远低于限制参考点F_0.1，2001—2010年的渔获量也小于最大可持续产量(MSY)，表明西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源目前处于良好开发状况，没有遭受过度捕捞.决策分析表明，在相同的收获率情况下，对数正态分布方案得到的2025年资源量最低、资源崩溃的概率最大.3种方案下2025年渔获量最大时的收获率均为0.6，但是若将管理策略定为收获率0.6，则2025年以后资源量存在一定风险，因此较为保守的管理策略应将收获率控制在0.4左右，渔获量在55万t左右.

关键词: 阿根廷滑柔鱼, 资源评估与管理, Schaefer模型, 西南大西洋

Abstract: Bayesian Schaefer model was applied to assess the stock of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, with the risk of alternative management strategies for the squid analyzed. Under the scenarios of normal and uniform prior assumptions, the estimated model parameters and reference points were similar, and higher than the values under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption. Under the three proposed scenarios, the fishing mortalities and the total catches in 2001-2010 were lower than the reference point F_0.1 and the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), indicating that the I. argentinus was in an expected sustainable exploited level but not in overfishing and over-fished. The results of decision analysis indicated that at the same harvest rate, the stock of the I. argentinus under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption in 2025 would be the lowest, and the probability of collapse would be the highest. Under the three scenarios, the harvest rate in 2025 would be all 0.6 if the catch was the maximum. However, if the harvest rate was set to 0.6, the stock of the I. argentinus after 2025 would have definite risk, and thus, the harvest rate 0.4 and the catch 550000 t appeared to be the best management regulation or the baseline case.

Key words: Illex argentinus, stock assessment and management, Schaefer model, Southwest Atlantic Ocean.

陆化杰1,2,3,4,陈新军1,2,3,4**,李纲1,2,3,4,曹杰5. 基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理[J]. 应用生态学报.

LU Hua-jie1,2,3,4, CHEN Xin-jun1,2,3,4, LI Gang1,2,3,4, CAO Jie5. Stock assessment and management for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on Bayesian Schaefer model.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.