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空间误差模型在黑龙江省森林碳储量空间分布的应用

刘畅,李凤日**,甄贞   

  1. (东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040)
  • 出版日期:2014-10-18 发布日期:2014-10-18

Prediction of spatial distribution of forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang Province using spatial error model.

LIU Chang, LI Feng-ri, ZHEN Zhen   

  1. (College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)
  • Online:2014-10-18 Published:2014-10-18

摘要:

基于黑龙江省2010年一类调查数据和重点公益林检测样地(5075块)数据以及同期黑龙江省、吉林省和内蒙古自治区59个气象站的气象数据,以森林碳储量为因变量,以胸径、每公顷株数、海拔、坡度及降雨与温度的乘积因子作为自变量,利用GeoDA软件构建空间误差模型,用全局Moran I 来描述不同空间尺度下模型残差的空间自相关性,计算最佳带宽(25 km)下的局域Moran I来表现模型残差的空间分布,计算组内方差来解释模型残差的空间异质性,最后将模型的预估结果生成黑龙江省森林碳储量的空间分布图.结果表明: 黑龙江省森林碳储量的分布具有空间效应;本文所选林分因子、地形因子及气象因子都显著影响森林碳储量的空间分布,胸径是最主要的因子.空间误差模型可以很好地解决模型残差的空间自相关性及空间异质性.由模型的预估结果可以看出,森林碳储量的空间分布存在很大差异,张广才岭、小兴安岭及大兴安岭地区是森林分布较密集的区域,松嫩平原地区的森林碳储量分布较少,完达山地区处于中等水平.

 

Abstract: Based on the data from Chinese National Forest Inventory (CNFI) and Key Ecological Benefit Forest Monitoring plots (5075 in total) in Heilongjiang Province in 2010 and concurrent meteorological data coming from 59 meteorological stations located in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia, this paper established a spatial error model (SEM) by GeoDA using carbon storage as dependent variable and several independent variables, including diameter of living trees (DBH), number of trees per hectare (TPH), elevation (Elev), slope (Slope), and product of precipitation and temperature (Rain_Temp). Global Moran’s I was computed for describing overall spatial autocorrelations of model results at different spatial scales. Local Moran’s I was calculated at the optimal bandwidth (25 km) to present spatial distribution residuals. Intrablock spatial variances were computed to explain spatial heterogeneity of residuals. Finally, a spatial distribution map of carbon storage in Heilongjiang was visualized based on predictions. The results showed that the distribution of forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang had spatial effect and was significantly influenced by stand, topographic and meteorological factors, especially average DBH. SEM could solve the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity well. There were significant spatial differences in distribution of forest carbon storage. The carbon storage was mainly distributed in Zhangguangcai Mountain, Xiao Xing’an Mountain and Da Xing’an Mountain where dense forests existed, rarely distributed in Songnen  Plains, while Wanda Mountain had moderatelevel carbon storage.