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气候平均值变化对辽宁水稻延迟型冷害评估结果的影响

纪瑞鹏,于文颖,武晋雯,冯锐,张玉书**   

  1. (中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 沈阳 110166)
  • 出版日期:2015-06-18 发布日期:2015-06-18

Effect of  climatic mean value change on the evaluation result of rice delayed cold damage in Liaoning Province, Northeast China.

JI Rui-peng, YU Wen-ying, WU Jin-wen, FENG Rui, ZHANG Yu-shu   

  1. (Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China)
  • Online:2015-06-18 Published:2015-06-18

摘要: 5—9月平均气温和的距平值(ΔT5-9)是评估东北地区水稻延迟型冷害的常用指标,但5—9月平均气温和的气候平均值(∑T5-9)统计年代的变化,是否会影响辽宁水稻延迟型冷害评估结果,还有待进一步研究.本文利用中华人民共和国气象行业标准《水稻冷害评估技术规范》(QX/T 182—2013)和补充后的(ΔT5-9),通过计算辽宁52个气象站1961—1990(S1)、1971—2000(S2)、1981—2010(S3)和1961—2010年(S4)4个气候年代的∑T5-9,分别利用冷害发生站数与评估总站数的比值(IOC)和发生频率对辽宁水稻低温冷害时空变化进行分析.结果表明: 1961—2010年,辽宁各地水稻生长季的热量条件(即∑T5-9)明显增加并发生了显著的时空变化;利用二次多项式模型对原有的水稻延迟型冷害评估气象指标进行补充完善.S2和S4的气候平均值对研究区水稻延迟型冷害时空规律的判识结果较为相似,但并不完全相同,基于S3气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数均低于其他3个气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数.与水稻典型减产年相比,利用S3气候平均值评估研究期间辽宁水稻延迟型冷害的结果更符合实际情况,可为准确评估气候变化背景下辽宁水稻延迟型冷害时空变化规律提供依据.

Abstract: The anomaly of mean temperature summation from May to September (ΔT5-9) was commonly used to assess delayed cold damage of rice in Northeast China, but whether the change of statistics years for climatic mean value (∑T5-9) would affect the evaluation results of Liaoning rice under cold damage needed to be further studied. By using the meteorological industry standard of the People’s Republic of China “technical standard on rice cold damage evaluation” (QX/T 182-2013) and the supplemental indices (ΔT5-9), the index (∑T5-9) was calculated in four periods 1961-1990 (S1), 1971-2000 (S2), 1981-2010 (S3) and 1961-2010 (S4), and the spatial and temporal changes of cold damage in Liaoning Province were analyzed based on the ratio between cold damage stations and total stations (IOC) and the occurrence frequency. The results showed that the heat condition (∑T5-9) in rice growing season increased obviously and the spatial and temporal changes were significant from 1961 to 2010. The original meteorological index of rice cold damage was improved by using quadratic polynomial model. The identification results were similar between S2 and S4. The variation coefficient of IOC in S3 was lower than that of the other three. Compared with the typical rice yield reduction years, the evaluation results accorded better with the actual situation in evaluating the rice delayed cold damage in Liaoning during study period by using the S3 climate mean value. The results could provide evidence for accurately evaluating the variation of rice cold damage in spatial and temporal distribution in Liaoning Province under the background of global climate change.