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应用生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 1357-1364.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.038

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应用Maxent建立沙筛贝潜在生境模型

马鸿梅1,2,3, 秦传新2,3*, 王兴强1, 朱文涛2,3, 尹程浩2,3, 席世改2,3, 左涛2,3, 潘莞倪2,3   

  1. 1江苏海洋大学海洋生命与水产学院, 江苏连云港 222005;
    2中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所/中国水产科学研究院海洋牧场技术重点实验室/广东省渔业生态环境重点实验室, 广州 510300;
    3国家渔业资源环境大鹏观测实验站, 广东深圳 518116
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-21 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-04-20
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail: qincx@scsfri.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:马鸿梅, 女, 1990年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事近岸海域生态与环境研究。E-mail: 1778368077@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划蓝色粮仓科技创新专项(2018YFD0900905)和中国水产科学研究院基本科研业务费(2019HY-JC0304)资助

Establishing potential habitats of Mytilopsis sallei with Maxent niche model

MA Hong-mei1,2,3, QIN Chuan-xin2,3*,WANG Xing-qiang1 , ZHU Wen-tao2,3,YIN Cheng-hao2,3,XI Shi-gai2,3, ZUO Tao2,3, PAN Wan-ni2,3   

  1. 1College of Marine Life and Fisheries, Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang 222005, Jiangsu, China;
    2South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Marine Ranching Technology, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Fishery Ecology and Environment, Guangzhou 510300, China;
    3National Fishery Resources and Environment Dapeng Observation and Experimental Station, Shenzhen 518116, Guangdong, China.
  • Received:2019-10-21 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-04-20
  • Contact: *E-mail: qincx@scsfri.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan Blue Granary Science and Technology Innovation Special Project (2018YFD0900905), and the Basic Scientific Research Operating Expenses of Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences (2019HY-JC0304).

摘要: 外来入侵物种沙筛贝适应能力强、繁殖率高,一旦入侵,将严重危害潮间带生物多样性。我国广东省部分沿海地区的潮间带和牡蛎增养殖区已被沙筛贝入侵,且污损情况较严重。为了了解沙筛贝目前在我国的潜在生境情况,本研究选用最大熵模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统相结合,建立了沙筛贝在我国和全球的潜在生境预测模型,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和实地调查对结果进行验证。结果表明: 沙筛贝全球存在概率较高的地区分布于北美洲与南美洲之间、印度南部、斯里兰卡和我国长江以南沿海以及南半球的澳大利亚范迪门湾;沙筛贝在我国的适生区域主要分布在上海以南沿海省份。影响沙筛贝适生区域分布的主要环境变量包括水汽压、温度和太阳辐射,经ROC检测后训练集AUC值为0.996,预测结果达到优秀水平。研究结果可为沙筛贝入侵风险评估和治理提供理论依据, 补充我国外来入侵物种的潜在生境预测工作。

Abstract: Mytilopsis sallei, an invasive alien species, has strong reproductive ability and high adaptability. It can severely endanger biodiversity of intertidal ecosystem after invasion. The intertidal zones and oyster breeding areas in some coastal areas of Guangdong Province have been severely invaded by M. sallei. To examine the potential habitat of M. sallei in China, we established a potential habitat prediction model of M. sallei using Maxent and ArcGIS method for China and global scales. The model was verified by the method of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis and field investigation. The results showed that M. sallei could distribute with high probabili-ty in the area between North and South America, South India in Asia, Sri Lanka, the south coast of the Yangtze River in China, and in Van Dimen Bay of the southern hemisphere. In China, M. sallei mainly distributed in coastal provinces south of Shanghai. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution areas for M. sallei were water vapor pressure, temperature, and solar radiation. After ROC detection, the AUC values of both the training and testing sets were 0.996, indicating that the prediction reached an excellent level. Our results provide theoretical basis for the risk assessment and management of M. sallei, and complement the potential habitat prediction of invasive species in China.