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应用生态学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (10): 2786-2794.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下东北地区热量资源及玉米温度适宜度

冶明珠1,2,郭建平2**,袁彬2,赵俊芳2   

  1. (1西宁市气象局, 西宁 810016; 2中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2012-10-18 发布日期:2012-10-18

Thermal resources and maize temperature suitability in Northeast China under climate change.

YE Ming-zhu1,2, GUO Jian-ping2, YUAN Bin2, ZHAO Jun-fang2   

  1. (1Xining Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810016, China; 2China Meteorological Science Institute, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2012-10-18 Published:2012-10-18

摘要: 利用RegCM3模式输出的东北三省1951—2100年日平均温度和最低温度,分析了东北三省热量资源和玉米不同生育期温度适宜度的时空分布.结果表明: 1951—2100年,东北地区热量资源显著增加,稳定通过10 ℃初日不断提前,初日在4月25日之前的区域北界向东向北扩展,2071—2100年辽宁部分地区初日已提前至3月26日;≥10 ℃活动积温大于3000 ℃·d的区域面积不断增加,玉米的生长季长度不断增加,适宜种植晚熟玉米的区域面积不断增加.与1981—2010年相比,2011—2100年,东北三省年均温度将平均升高3.34 ℃.1951—2100年,玉米播种-出苗期以及出苗-抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间逐渐升高;1951—2040年,辽宁省玉米抽雄-成熟期以及全生育期的温度适宜度较高,而黑龙江省较低;2041—2100年,辽宁省玉米抽雄成熟期以及全生育期的温度适宜度逐渐降低,吉林省东部和黑龙江省呈逐渐增加的趋势.

Abstract: This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of thermal resources and of temperature suitability of maize at its different growth stages in Northeast China, based on the 1951-2100 daily mean and minimum air temperature from RegCM3. In 1951-2100, the thermal resources in Northeast China had an obvious persistent increase, the first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ continued to be advanced, and the north boundary line in the zone of the first date of temperature ≥10 ℃ before April 25th moved eastward and northward. In 2071-2100, the first date in some areas of Liaoning Province would advance to March 26th, and the areas with active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ more than 3000 ℃·d, the length of growth season, and the areas suitable for late-maturing maize planting in Northeast China would increase persistently. In the region, the mean annual temperature in 2011-2100 would be 3.34 ℃ higher than that in 1981-2010. In 1951-2100, there was and would be an increasing temperature suitability of maize at its sowingheading stage. In 1951-2040, the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season was and would be higher in Liaoning Province than in Heilongjiang Province; in 2041-2100, the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season would decrease gradually in Liaoning Province but increase gradually in east Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province.