基于生态位模型的外来入侵种克氏原螯虾在中国的适生区预测

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202001.029

应用生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 309-318.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202001.029

基于生态位模型的外来入侵种克氏原螯虾在中国的适生区预测

肖麒^1,2, 章梦婷³, 吴翼⁴, 丁晖⁴, 雷军成⁵, 朱善良³, 张振华³, 陈炼^1*

¹南京林业大学生物与环境学院, 南京 210037;
²南京师范大学生命科学学院, 南京 210046;
³江苏第二师范学院生命科学与化学化工学院, 南京 210013;
⁴生态环境部南京环境科学研究所, 南京 210042;
⁵赣南师范大学地理与环境工程学院, 江西赣州 341000

收稿日期:2019-06-06 出版日期:2020-01-15 发布日期:2020-01-15
通讯作者: E-mail: chenlian_2004@163.com
作者简介:肖麒, 男, 1994年生, 硕士研究生。主要从事入侵生物学研究。E-mail: m18033705433@163.com
基金资助:
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20171407)、江苏省第五期333工程培养对象项目、生态环境部生物多样性调查、观测和评估项目、国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD08B01)和江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JC18223)

Prediction of potential distribution of the invasive species Procambarus clarkii in China based on ecological niche models

XIAO Qi^1,2, ZHANG Meng-ting³, WU Yi⁴, DING Hui⁴, LEI Jun-cheng⁵, ZHU Shan-liang³, ZHANG Zhen-hua³, CHEN Lian^1*

¹College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;
²College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China;
³College of Life Sciences, Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China;
⁴Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China;
⁵School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, China

Received:2019-06-06 Online:2020-01-15 Published:2020-01-15
Contact: E-mail: chenlian_2004@163.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20171407), the fifth phase of “333 High-level Personnel Training Project” of Jiangsu Province, Biodiversity Investigation, Observation and Assessment Program of Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2015BAD08B01), and the Project of Humanities and Social Sciences in Higher Education Institutions of Jiangxi Province (JC18223).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 克氏原螯虾在20世纪初作为重要的水产品引入中国,但因其繁殖能力强、生长迅速、适应性强、喜掘洞穴,对农作物、池埂及农田水利有一定破坏作用,降低入侵地区当地物种多样性,对当地生态系统造成严重危害。因此,研究未来气候情景下克氏原螯虾适生区的变化,可为其监控和管理措施提供关键信息,有效预防和控制其蔓延。本研究基于克氏原螯虾的分布点,应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和规则集遗传算法(GARP)模型模拟了当前气候条件下克氏原螯虾在中国的潜在适生区,并预测了2041—2060年和2061—2080年克氏原螯虾在4种气候变化情景下(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5)的分布,采用ROC曲线对预测结果进行检验和评价。结果表明: 在当前气候条件下克氏原螯虾集中分布在上海、江苏、浙江、安徽等长江沿岸地区;最冷季平均温度、最冷月最低温度对克氏原螯虾分布影响最大,其次是温度季节性变化、最暖月最高温度和最干月降水量。在未来气候情景下,2061—2080年克氏原螯虾的适生区面积有不同程度的变化,在RCP 2.6和RCP 4.5情景下总适生面积增加,但在RCP 8.5情景下呈先增后减趋势,而在RCP 6.0情景下无明显变化;克氏原螯虾适生区在空间分布上不仅有纬度方向上的扩散,也有向海拔较高地区迁移的趋势。

Abstract: Procambarus clarkii was introduced into China as an important aquatic product in early 20th century. It has characteristics of high fertility, rapid growth, adaptability and digging burrows, which could cause damage of crops, cropland and facilities, decrease local biodiversity and thus threaten local ecosystem. Thus, predicting the potential distribution of P. clarkii in response to climate change was essential for preventing and monitoring this species. Based on the distribution of P. clarkii, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) models were used to predict its distribution in China under current climate and four climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) in two periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Then, the modeling results were tested by ROC curves. The results showed that under current climate, the highly suitable region for distribution predicted by the MaxEnt and GARP models were Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui along the Yangtze River. The main environmental variables affecting its distribution were mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the warmest month, and temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the driest month. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable area of P. clarkii distribution varied in 2061-2080. The total suitable area of P. clarkii would increase under RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5, whereas under RCP 8.5 the suitable area of P. clarkii would increase, and then decrease. In RCP 6.0, there was no change. The suitable areas of P. clarkii would disperse to different latitude areas and migrate toward high altitude.

肖麒, 章梦婷, 吴翼, 丁晖, 雷军成, 朱善良, 张振华, 陈炼. 基于生态位模型的外来入侵种克氏原螯虾在中国的适生区预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2020, 31(1): 309-318.

XIAO Qi, ZHANG Meng-ting, WU Yi, DING Hui, LEI Jun-cheng, ZHU Shan-liang, ZHANG Zhen-hua, CHEN Lian. Prediction of potential distribution of the invasive species Procambarus clarkii in China based on ecological niche models[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2020, 31(1): 309-318.

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基于生态位模型的外来入侵种克氏原螯虾在中国的适生区预测

Prediction of potential distribution of the invasive species Procambarus clarkii in China based on ecological niche models

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