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基于非线性混合模型的红松人工林枝条生长

王春红,李凤日**,贾炜玮,董利虎   

  1. (东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040)
  • 出版日期:2013-07-18 发布日期:2013-07-18

Branch growth of Korean pine plantation based on nonlinear mixed model.

WANG Chun-hong, LI Feng-ri, JIA Wei-wei, DONG Li-hu   

  1. (School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)
  • Online:2013-07-18 Published:2013-07-18

摘要: 基于黑龙江省孟家岗林场36株红松人工林的枝解析数据,以单分子式和理查德方程作为枝条基径(BD)和枝长(BL)生长模型,分别考虑样地效应和样木效应,利用SAS软件的PROC NLMIXED模块构建了枝条基径和枝长生长的非线性混合模型.采用Akaike信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)、对数似然值(-2Log likelihood)和似然比检验(LRT)等评价指标对所构建模型的精度进行比较.结果表明:当考虑样地效应时,α1、α3β1β3分别作为随机参数时基径和枝长生长模型拟合效果最好;当考虑样木效应影响时,α2α3β1β3分别作为随机参数时基径和枝长生长模型拟合效果最好.非线性混合模型不但可反映枝生长总体平均变化趋势,还能反映个体之间的差异.无论考虑样地效应还是样木效应,非线性混合模型的拟合精度都比传统回归模型的拟合精度高,并且考虑样木效应的拟合精度高于考虑样地效应的拟合精度.

Abstract: Based on the branch analysis data from 36 sample trees in a Korean pine plantation in Mengjiagang Forest Farm of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, and by using Mitcherlich and Richards equations as the models of branch diameter and branch length growth, respectively, the effects of sampling plot and sample tree were investigated, and the nonlinear mixed models of branch diameter and branch length growth were established by the PROC NLMIXED procedure of SAS software. The evaluation statistics such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), -2Log likelihood, and likelihood ratio test (LRT) were used to compare the prediction precisions of the models. When considering plot effect, and taking α1 and α3 and β1 and β3 as the random parameters, respectively, the models of branch diameter and branch length growth had the best performance. When considering tree effect, and taking α2 and α3 and β2 and β3 as the random parameters, respectively, the models of branch diameter and branch length growth had the best performance. The nonlinear mixed model could not only reflect the mean variation of branch growth, but also show the differences among the individual trees. No matter considering plot effect or tree effect, the fitting precision of the nonlinear mixed model was better than that of the ordinary regression analysis model. Moreover, the fitting precision of the nonlinear mixed model was better when considering tree effect than considering plot effect.