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三个日太阳总辐射估算模型的比较

杨金明,范文义**,赵颖慧   

  1. (东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040)
  • 出版日期:2014-08-18 发布日期:2014-08-18

Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models.

YANG Jin-ming, FAN Wen-yi, ZHAO Ying-hui   

  1. (School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)
  • Online:2014-08-18 Published:2014-08-18

摘要:

利用东北三省及内蒙古东部13个气象站1982—2012年的数据,分析比较了3个估算日太阳总辐射的模型(A-P模型、ThorntonRunning模型和刘可群等提出的模型).经交叉验证分析的结果表明: 3个模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.71、2.83和1.68 MJ·m-2·d-1,表明利用了日照百分率的A-P模型和刘可群等提出的模型对于日太阳总辐射的估算效果明显优于没有利用日照百分率的ThorntonRunning模型.刘可群等提出的模型对无日照情况的处理起到了很好效果,其无日照情况下的MAE和偏差百分比分别比A-P模型小18.5%和33.8%.在有日照情况下利用A-P的简单线性模型计算日太阳总辐射即可获得较高精度.A-P模型、ThorntonRunning模型和刘可群等提出的模型对日太阳总辐射分别高估12.2%、19.2%和9.9%.各气象站MAE随地理位置的变化不大,MAE随年代的推移呈递减趋势,原因可能是1993年更换辐射观测仪器后所导致的观测精度的变化.3个模型在有雨日、无日照和暖季情况下的MAE均远大于无雨日、有日照和冷季,说明利用气象要素推算太阳辐射的模型有待对不同的天气情况进行不同处理.
 

Abstract: Three daily global solar radiation estimation models (A-P model, ThorntonRunning model and model provided by Liu Kequn et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After crossvalidation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ·m-2·d-1 respectively, showing that A-P model and model provided by Liu Kequn et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over ThorntonRunning model which didn’t use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Kequn et al. played a good effect on the situation of nonsunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of A-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of A-P. A-P model, ThorntonRunning model and model provided by Liu Kequn et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, nonsunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.