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Daycent模型模拟不同农作管理措施下华北地区土壤有机碳的变化

张璇1,2,3,谢立勇2,郭李萍1*,范靖尉1   

  1. 1中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081; 2沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110161; 3中国气象局气象干部培训学院辽宁分院, 沈阳 110166)
  • 出版日期:2016-02-18 发布日期:2016-02-18

Modelling the changes of soil organic carbon under different management practices using Daycent model in North China.

ZHANG Xuan1,2,3, XIE Li-yong2, GUO Li-ping1*, FAN Jing-wei1   

  1. (1Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Beijing 100081, China; 2College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China; 3Liaoning Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Shenyang 110166, China).
  • Online:2016-02-18 Published:2016-02-18

摘要: 基于华北地区3个长期定位试验站点(河南郑州、山东禹城和河北曲周)的试验数据,用站点实测作物产量和土壤有机碳(SOC)双标准对Daycent模型进行校验和验证.结果表明: 模型参数组合对作物产量和SOC的长期变化动态拟合效果良好,表明Daycent模型可较好地模拟作物产量和SOC的动态变化.用校验和验证了的模型对3个站点在气候情景RCP 4.5下4种不同管理措施(单施化肥NPK、化肥+有机肥MNPK、秸秆还田SNPK、免耕+秸秆NT)下SOC的变化动态进行模拟.结果表明: 郑州站点NPK、MNPK、SNPK处理中,MNPK处理的SOC相对年平均增幅最高,2001—2050年间的SOC年增幅达1.7%,其次为SNPK处理(年均增幅为1.3%)和NPK处理(年均增幅为0.8%),从长远角度看,增施有机肥对灌溉轻壤土有机碳的增加有明显效果.在禹城站点,研究期间,MNPK处理的SOC年均增幅(0.4%)高于NPK处理(0.3%),由于该站点土壤有轻度盐化特征,因此各措施下SOC的增幅较低.在曲周站点,NT处理更有利于SOC的增加,研究期间的SOC年均增幅达1.3%,远高于SNPK处理(0.7%)和NPK处理(0.4%).华北地区气温适宜、灌溉条件好、具备秸秆还田及免耕机械条件,免耕+秸秆还田是该地区增加SOC的较好农作管理措施.

Abstract: The Daycent model was calibrated and validated using measured crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) as double assessment standards based on the experimental data from three longterm experiments (i.e. Zhengzhou site in Henan Province, Yucheng site in Shandong Province and Quzhou site in Hebei Province) in North China. Results showed that the buildup parameters simulated the longterm dynamic changes of crop yields and SOC very well, indicating Daycent model could project the dynamic changes of crop yield and SOC soundly. After calibration and validation, Daycent model was used to simulate the changes of SOC under future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, RCP 4.5) with four different management practices (chemical fertilizer, NPK; chemical fertilizer+organic manure, MNPK; straw incorporation, SNPK; notillage+straw incorporation, NT) at the three sites. At Zhengzhou site, the change of SOC was highest for MNPK treatment during the period of 2001-2050 (1.7%) and followed by SNPK (1.3%) and NPK (0.8%) in terms of annual relative increase rate (ARIR), indicating long-term amendment of organic manure could effectively increase SOC for light loam soil with irrigation condition. At Yucheng site, the increase of SOC (ARIR) under MNPK treatment (0.4%) was higher than under NPK treatment (0.3%). In addition, the increase of SOC was very low under all treatments at this site, probably due to light soil salinization. At Quzhou site, the increase of SOC (ARIR) under NT treatment was 1.3%, higher than those under SNPK treatment (0.7%) and NPK treatment (0.4%), indicating NT was more effective for SOC increase in this area. We concluded that notillage with straw incorporation is the optimized management practice to increase SOC in North China Plain due to mild climate, sound irrigation and available mechanical equipment for straw processing and notillage operation.