21世纪上半叶内蒙古草地植被净初级生产力变化趋势

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201603.011

应用生态学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 803-814.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201603.011

21世纪上半叶内蒙古草地植被净初级生产力变化趋势

郭灵辉¹, 郝成元¹, 吴绍洪^2,3*, 高江波^2,3, 赵东升^2,3

¹河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院, 河南焦作 454000;
²中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
³中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101

收稿日期:2015-08-11 出版日期:2016-03-18 发布日期:2016-03-18
通讯作者: * E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:郭灵辉,男,1983年生,博士.主要从事气候变化与生态系统风险评估研究.E-mail:guolinghui@hpu.edu.cn
基金资助:
本文由国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B04,2012BAC19B10)、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2011CB403206, 2015CB452702)和河南理工大学博士基金项目(B2015-17)资助

Projected changes in vegetation net primary productivity of grassland in Inner Mongolia, China during 2011-2050

GUO Ling-hui¹, HAO Cheng-yuan¹, WU Shao-hong^2,3*, GAO Jiang-bo^2,3, ZHAO Dong-sheng^2,3

¹School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, Henan, China;
²Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
³Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2015-08-11 Online:2016-03-18 Published:2016-03-18
Contact: * E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program of China during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (2012BAC19B04,2012BAC19B10), the National Basic Research Priorities Program of China (2011CB403206,2015CB452702) and the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Henan Polytechnic University (B2015-17).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国气象局国家气候中心新发布的中短期适应气候变化的新情景(RCP4.5)和极端情景(RCP8.5)下的气候预估数据,采用空间化后的CENTURY模型模拟探讨2011－2050年内蒙古草地植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时空变化特征.结果表明: 区域尺度上,未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地NPP年下降速率分别为0.57 g C·m^-2·a^-1(RCP4.5)、0.89 g C·m^-2·a^-1(RCP8.5);相对于基准时段,RCP4.5情景下内蒙古草地NPP在2020s、2030s、2040s分别下降11.6%、12.0%、18.0%,而RCP8.5情景下降幅分别为23.8%、21.2%、30.1%.不同气候情景下内蒙古草地NPP时空变化特征差异较大,但即使在RCP4.5下未来40年绝大部分草地NPP也将呈现下降趋势,15.6%的草地减产超过20%.这表明未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地降水略增的态势不足以补偿因温度升高对草地植被初级生产力所产生的负面作用,草地资源的可持续发展将面临更大挑战.

Abstract: In this paper, the CENTURY-based modeling system (complying CENTURY model from a site-based model into spatial model) after being systematically calibrated was used to investigate future climate change under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario (RCP, 4.5 and 8.5) driven spatio-temporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) of Inner Mongolia grassland during 2011-2050. The simulation showed that Inner Mongolia grassland NPP would greatly decrease with a rate of 0.57 g C·m^-2·a^-1 (RCP4.5) and 0.89 g C·m^-2·a^-1 (RCP8.5). NPP of Inner Mongolia grassland appeared to decrease by approximately 11.6% (2020s), 12.0% (2030s) and 18.0% (2040s) under the RCP4.5 in relation to baseline period, while its reduction could be exacerbated as 23.8% (2020s), 21.2% (2030s) and 30.1% (2040s) in the RCP8.5 at the regional scale. In addition, grassland NPP induced by future climate changes varied between different grassland types and times, strongly correlating with climate scenario. Even for the RCP4.5, however, a great majority (89.7%) of the grassland exhibited a decreasing trend in annual NPP, with 15.6% of the area decreasing by more than 20% compared with the baseline term. Therefore, although future precipitation rising could benefit vegetation growth, it might be still not enough to compensate for the negative effect of warming on the NPP of Inner Mongolia grassland, and the sustainable development of grassland resources might face a greater challenge.

郭灵辉, 郝成元, 吴绍洪, 高江波, 赵东升. 21世纪上半叶内蒙古草地植被净初级生产力变化趋势[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(3): 803-814.

GUO Ling-hui, HAO Cheng-yuan, WU Shao-hong, GAO Jiang-bo, ZHAO Dong-sheng. Projected changes in vegetation net primary productivity of grassland in Inner Mongolia, China during 2011-2050[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(3): 803-814.

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21世纪上半叶内蒙古草地植被净初级生产力变化趋势

Projected changes in vegetation net primary productivity of grassland in Inner Mongolia, China during 2011-2050

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