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应用生态学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 1241-1247.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.037

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响

胡雪琼,徐梦莹,何雨芩,张明达,吉文娟,朱勇*   

  1. 云南省气候中心, 昆明 650034
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-15 修回日期:2016-01-28 出版日期:2016-04-22 发布日期:2016-04-22
  • 通讯作者: zhuyong78@hotmail.com
  • 作者简介:胡雪琼,女,1976年生,硕士,高级工程师.主要从事农业气象研究.E-mail: hxqnky@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文由中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201426)

Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan, China.

HU Xue-qiong, XU Meng-ying, HE Yu-qin, ZHANG Ming-da, JI Wen-juan, ZHU Yong*   

  1. Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, China
  • Received:2015-07-15 Revised:2016-01-28 Online:2016-04-22 Published:2016-04-22
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201426).

摘要: 云南烤烟种植的气候适宜性分布将受到气候变化的深刻影响.根据云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的3个决定因子(7月平均气温、7—8月日照时数、4—9月降水量),利用1981—2060年的气候模拟数据及1986—2005年的气象台站实测数据,分析了1986—2005年及RCP 4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下2021—2040年、2041—2060年云南烤烟种植气候适宜性分布的变化.结果表明: 未来气候情景下,云南烤烟种植气候适宜分布呈现北抬东扩的趋势,未来云南烤烟可种植区域将呈逐渐增加的趋势,且2041—2060年增幅大于2021—2040年、RCP8.5情景的增幅大于RCP4.5情景,其中,烤烟的最适宜区域、次适宜区域增幅均较大,适宜区域则变化不大.未来云南中北部烟区的昆明、曲靖、大理、楚雄、丽江最适宜区面积与可种植面积增幅较大,文山、红河、普洱、西双版纳等南部烟区最适宜区面积与可种植面积减幅较大.

Abstract: The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be profoundly affected by climate change. According to three key factors influencing climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, namely, average temperature in July, sunshine duration from July to August, precipitation from April to September, the variations of climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan respectively in 1986-2005, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were investigated by using the climatic simulation data in 1981-2060 and the meteorological observation data during 1986-2005. The results showed that climatic suitability region would expand northward and eastward and plantable area of flue-cured tobacco would gradually increase. The increment of plantable area was more in 2041-2060 than in 2021-2040, and under RCP8.5 scenario than under RCP4.5 scenario. The optimum climatic area and sub-suitable climatic area were expanded considerably, while the suitable climatic area was not much changed. In the future, the north-central Yunnan such as Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong, Lijiang would have a big increase in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area, meanwhile, the southern Yunnan including Wenshan, Honghe, Puer and Xishuangbanna would have a big decrease in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area.