基于抚育间伐效应的长白落叶松人工林两阶段枯死模型

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201703.014

应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 779-788.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201703.014

基于抚育间伐效应的长白落叶松人工林两阶段枯死模型

王蒙, 李凤日^*, 金星姬

东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040

收稿日期:2016-08-07 发布日期:2017-03-18
通讯作者: *E-mail: fengrili@126.com
作者简介:王蒙,男,1987年生,博士研究生.主要从事林分生长与收获模型研究.E-mail:36664217@qq.com
基金资助:
本文由国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD09B01)资助

A two-step approach for modeling tree mortality in Larix olgensis plantation based on effects of thinning

WANG Meng, LI Feng-ri^*, JIN Xing-ji

College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China

Received:2016-08-07 Published:2017-03-18
Contact: *E-mail: fengrili@126.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program (2015BAD09B01)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 1972和1974年分别在黑龙江省江山娇林场及孟家岗林场设置10块长白落叶松人工林固定样地(8块抚育间伐样地、2块对照样地),采用连年复测数据,分析抚育间伐对人工长白落叶松样地枯死与单木枯死的影响.基于二分类变量Logistic回归,建立了样地枯死及样地内单木枯死概率的两阶段模型(Ⅰ:抚育间伐后样地水平枯死概率模型;Ⅱ:枯死样地中单木水平枯死概率模型),采用广义估计方程(GEE)方法对模型参数进行估计.根据敏感度和特异度曲线相交点确定枯死概率最优临界点.结果表明: 样地数据按照抚育间伐次数分为4组分别建模(模型1～模型4).在模型1中,地位指数、林分年龄的自然对数、抚育间伐年龄及强度为显著自变量;模型2～模型4采用主成分分析法建模,主成分包含林分年龄、每公顷株数、平均胸径及抚育间伐因子,说明抚育间伐因子对样地枯死概率有显著影响.抚育间伐对枯死样地中单木枯死概率无显著影响,单木枯死概率模型中显著性自变量为林分初植密度、年龄、林木胸径的倒数及林分中大于对象木的所有林木断面积之和.样地枯死概率模型及单木枯死概率模型Hosmer和Lemeshow拟合优度检验均不显著,模型AUC均在0.91以上,估计正确率均超过80%,说明模型拟合效果较好.

Abstract: Ten permanent plots of Larix olgensis plantation were established in 1972 and 1974 at Jiangshanjiao and Mengjiagang forest farms in Heilongjiang Province, respectively. The plots including 8 thinning plots and 2 control plots were measured annually. The effects of thinning on the probability of plot mortality and individual tree mortality were analyzed. Based on the binary logistic regression, two-step models of the probability of mortality were developed. The approach consisted of estimating the probability of mortality after thinning on a sample plot (Ⅰ) and the mortality of individual tree within mortality plots (Ⅱ). The generalized estimating equations (GEE) method was adopted to estimate the parameters of models. An optimal cutpoint was determined for each model by plotting the sensitivity curve and the specificity curve and choosing the cutpoint at which the specificity and sensitivity curves cross. The results showed that four models (models 1-4) were developed based on the data of plots which was divided into 4 groups by thinning times, respectively. The significant explicatory variables of model 1 were site index, the logarithm of stand age, thinning age and thinning intensity. Principal component analysis was used to develop models 2-4. The primal variables of the principal components were stand age, tree numbers per hectare, mean square diameter at breast height and thinning factors. This showed that thinning significantly affected the probability of plot mortality. The effect of thinning was not significant for the pro-bability of individual tree mortality. The significant variables of the individual tree mortality model were planting density, age, the inverse of diameter at breast height and the basal area of all trees larger than the subject tree. Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit tests were not significant for the mortality models of plots and individual trees (P＞0.05). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the models were all greater than 0.91, the accuracies were all above 80%, suggesting the fitting results of the models performed very well.

王蒙, 李凤日, 金星姬. 基于抚育间伐效应的长白落叶松人工林两阶段枯死模型[J]. 应用生态学报, 2017, 28(3): 779-788.

WANG Meng, LI Feng-ri, JIN Xing-ji. A two-step approach for modeling tree mortality in Larix olgensis plantation based on effects of thinning[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(3): 779-788.

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基于抚育间伐效应的长白落叶松人工林两阶段枯死模型

A two-step approach for modeling tree mortality in Larix olgensis plantation based on effects of thinning

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