农药残留预测模型可靠性的检验与改良

应用生态学报 ›› 1999, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (5): 599-602.

农药残留预测模型可靠性的检验与改良

王玉杰, 张大克

吉林农业大学基础科学系, 长春130118

收稿日期:1997-10-10 修回日期:1997-12-10 出版日期:1999-09-25 发布日期:1999-09-25
通讯作者: 王玉杰,女,37岁,硕士,副教授,主要从事生物数学理论研究,已发表学术论文36篇.E-mail:dkwang@990.net E-mail:dkwang@990.net
基金资助:
吉林省科委资助项目(951196).

Test and improvement of model reliability for predicting insecticide residue

Wang Yujie, Zhang Dake

Department of Basic Science, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118

Received:1997-10-10 Revised:1997-12-10 Online:1999-09-25 Published:1999-09-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对农药残留预测模型可靠性问题进行了分析。根据矩阵的条件数理论,提供了检验预测模型可靠性的方法,基于岭回归和广义岭回归估计理论,建立了对不可靠预测模型改良的方法。最后通过氰戊菊酯在甘篮上的残留动态预测,对所建改良方法进行了检验,结果表明,预测模型的精度得到了大幅度提高.

关键词: 农药残留预测模型, 可靠性, 检验方法, 改良方法

Abstract: According to the theory of condition number of matrix, this paper provided a method for testing the reliability of predicting model,and on the basis of ridge regression theory,the method for improving unreliable predicting model was built, which was tested by predicting the residue dynamics of fenvalerate in cabbages.The results showed the precision of predicting model was increased by a big range.

Key words: Model for predicting insecticide residue, Reliability, Testing method, Improvement method

王玉杰, 张大克. 农药残留预测模型可靠性的检验与改良[J]. 应用生态学报, 1999, 10(5): 599-602.

Wang Yujie, Zhang Dake . Test and improvement of model reliability for predicting insecticide residue[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 1999, 10(5): 599-602.