Abstract: This study aimed to examine the responses of persistent soil seed bank to future precipitation reduction of global climate change in the forest-steppe ecotone of Hulunbuir. Samples of soil seed bank were collected from 0-10 cm soil layer along a precipitation gradient. We examined the density, species composition, diversity of seed bank and their relationship with vegetation. Structural equation model was used to explore the direct impact of annual precipitation on soil seed bank and the indirect impact through vegetation, soil nitrogen, soil phosphorus, and soil pH. The results showed that seed bank density and species richness were negatively correlated with annual precipitation. The species diversity of soil seed banks in grasslands was higher than that in forests. The similarity between soil seed bank and vegetation was generally low. The results of structural equation model showed that the effects of annual precipitation on seed bank density and species richness were negative, with the standard path coefficients of -0.051 and -0.122, respectively. The direct effect of annual precipitation on seed bank density and species richness were positive. Precipitation had indirect and positive effect on seed bank density and species richness through soil nitrogen, a significantly indirect negative effect on seed bank species richness through soil pH and soil available phosphorus, and a significantly indirect negative effect on seed bank density through soil pH. The reduction of precipitation under furture climate change might alter the hedging strategies of plants. The persistent soil seed bank in the forest-steppeecotone had a potential buffering effect against future precipitation reduction.

Key words: persistent seed bank, soil chemical property, seed bank density, species richness, soil pH