Abstract: With the combination of crop model and climate mode, this paper simulated and predicted the effects of climate change on the winter wheat production of North China in future 100 years. The results showed that from 2000 to 2004, the variation trend of simulated winter wheat production in North China was accordant with the measured one, and the difference of winter wheat’s lifecycle and yield was not obvious. In the future 100 years, the lifecycle of winter wheat would be shortened by 8.4 days, and its yield would be decreased to different extent, with 10.1% as the average. If proper measures such as adjusting crop parameters and management measures were adopted, the decline of winter wheat yield could be mitigated effectively.

Key words: Emergy analysis, Energy analysis, Ecosystem, Solar emergy, Solar transformity