Abstract: Land use change has significant effects on  vegetation biomass via altering ecosystem structure. By adopting a spatially explicit land use change model, this paper simulated the spatiotemporal pattern of land use change in China till 2030, based on the historical scenario (in this scenario, the land use trend in 1988-2005 was extrapolated to obtain the area of each land use type in the future) and the planned scenario (in this scenario, the area of each land use type in the future was based on the national scale land use planning). On the basis of this simulation and using a biomass density approach, the spatial pattern of vegetation biomass change in China was estimated. The simulation showed that under the historical scenario, the forest area would be decreased but the forest age would be in adverse, and accordingly, the forest biomass density would have an increase. Till 2030, the overall vegetation biomass in China would be 14619 Tg, with an increase of 251.19 Tg as compared to the situation in 2005. Under the planned scenario, the forest area would be increased, and the overall vegetation biomass in 2030 would be 15468 Tg, with an increase of 1100 Tg as compared to the situation in 2005. In the planned scenario, the planted forest area would be larger while the forest age would be younger, resulting in a much lower vegetation biomass density in 2030 than that in the historical scenario, and thus, the China’s vegetation in the planned scenario would have a higher potential to act as a carbon sink.

Key words: scenario, land use change, spatial model, landscape, biomass density, forest age.