基于多元小波相干的异龙湖流域极端气候指数与大气环流模态关系

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202511.022

应用生态学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 3431-3442.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202511.022

基于多元小波相干的异龙湖流域极端气候指数与大气环流模态关系

包宁颖¹, 宋维峰^1*, 胡彦婷¹, 张亚丽¹, 郭雨桐¹, 李杰², 龚云辉³

¹西南林业大学水土保持学院, 昆明 650224;
²西南林业大学生态与环境学院(湿地学院), 昆明 650224;
³异龙湖保护治理与绿色发展研究所, 云南石屏 662200

收稿日期:2025-03-05 接受日期:2025-09-03 出版日期:2025-11-18 发布日期:2026-06-18
通讯作者: * E-mail: songwf85@126.com
作者简介:包宁颖, 男, 1995年生, 博士研究生。主要从事流域水文研究。E-mail: 37baony@swfu.edu.cn
基金资助:
云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AC100002-03)和云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2024J0674)

Relationship between extreme climate indices and atmospheric circulation modes based on multivariate wavelet coherence in the Yilong Lake Basin, Southwest China

BAO Ningying¹, SONG Weifeng^1*, HU Yan-ting¹, ZHANG Yali¹, GUO Yutong¹, LI Jie², GONG Yunhui³

¹College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China;
²School of Ecology and Environment (College of Wetlands), Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China;
³Yilong Lake Institute for Eco-conservation and Sustainable Development, Shiping 662200, Yunnan, China

Received:2025-03-05 Accepted:2025-09-03 Online:2025-11-18 Published:2026-06-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 异龙湖是云南九大高原湖泊之一,属于典型的高原浅水湖泊,易受气候变化的影响,研究其极端气候变化对区域生态安全和社会发展具有重要意义。基于异龙湖流域1979—2023年的逐日气象数据,采用一元线性回归模型、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波变换相干分析和多元小波相干分析等方法分析异龙湖流域极端气候变化的趋势及其与环流模态的关系。结果表明: 1979—2023年,研究区降雨强度增加,气温呈显著升高趋势,表现出明显的暖湿化特征。太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)强度越高,异龙湖流域出现强降水事件频率越高;东大西洋/西俄罗斯遥相关模态(EA/WR)增强时,异龙湖流域气候会趋向湿润发展,同时伴随降温;厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)增强时,异龙湖流域气候趋向高温干燥。异龙湖流域不同极端气候指数的变化受不同环流模态组合协同影响。多元小波的显著相干面积(PASC)表明,三模态组合(PDO-NAO-EA/WR)主导了持续干燥日数(PASC=26.1%)、持续湿润日数(PASC=22.5%)、冷昼日数(PASC=20.5%)、夏季日数(PASC=18.7%)、暖夜日数(PASC=13.5%)、暖昼日数(PASC=10.6%)的变化;四模态组合(PDO-NAO-EA/WR-ENSO)主导了冷夜日数(PASC=11.0%)变化,而单日最大降水量、暴雨日数、强降水量和降水强度在多大气环流模态组合下的PASC没有显著差异。

关键词: 极端气候指数, 大气环流模态, 小波变换相干, 多元小波相干, 异龙湖流域

Abstract: Yilong Lake, one of the nine plateau lakes in Yunnan, is a typical shallow plateau lake with high sensitivity to climate change. Understanding how extreme climate variability affects the basin is therefore critical for regional ecological security and socio-economic development. Based on daily meteorological data from 1979 to 2023 in the Yilong Lake Basin, we analyzed the trends of extreme climate changes and their relationships with atmospheric circulation modes using linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analysis, and multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) analysis. The results showed that rainfall intensity and air temperature increased significantly from 1979 to 2023, indicating a pronounced warming-wetting trend. Stronger Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases were associated with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation events. Enhanced East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) patterns corresponded to wetter and cooler conditions, and stronger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases corresponded to hotter and drier conditions. Changes in individual extreme climate indices were synergistically influenced by the combinations of atmospheric circulation modes. Based on the percent area of significant coherence (PASC) of multiple wavelet, the three-mode combination PDO-NAO-EA/WR dominated the variability of consecutive dry days (PASC=26.1%), consecutive wet days (22.5%), cold day index (20.5%), summer days (18.7%), warm night index (13.5%), and the warm day index (10.6%). The four-mode combination PDO-NAO-EA/WR-ENSO dominated the variability of the cold night index (11.0%). PASC differences among multi-mode combinations were not significant for indices such as max 1-day precipitation amount, heavy precipitation days, very wet days, and simple daily intensity index.

Key words: extreme climate index, atmospheric circulation mode, wavelet transform coherence, multiple wavelet coherence, Yilong Lake Basin

包宁颖, 宋维峰, 胡彦婷, 张亚丽, 郭雨桐, 李杰, 龚云辉. 基于多元小波相干的异龙湖流域极端气候指数与大气环流模态关系[J]. 应用生态学报, 2025, 36(11): 3431-3442.

BAO Ningying, SONG Weifeng, HU Yan-ting, ZHANG Yali, GUO Yutong, LI Jie, GONG Yunhui. Relationship between extreme climate indices and atmospheric circulation modes based on multivariate wavelet coherence in the Yilong Lake Basin, Southwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(11): 3431-3442.

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基于多元小波相干的异龙湖流域极端气候指数与大气环流模态关系

Relationship between extreme climate indices and atmospheric circulation modes based on multivariate wavelet coherence in the Yilong Lake Basin, Southwest China

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