关键词: 电力消费碳排放强度, 绿色转型发展, 耦合协调, 长江经济带, 脱钩效应

Abstract: Promoting the synergistic optimization of electricity carbon emission reduction and green transition development is an important way to achieve regional ecological security and high-quality development. We employed a coupling coordination model to measure the coordination between electricity consumption carbon intensity and green transition development in the three urban agglomerations (urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta, Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Sichuan-Chongqing) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021. We used Kernel density estimation and the Dagum Gini coefficient to reveal the spatio-temporal variations and regional heterogeneity, and constructed a Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling effects between them. The results showed that the electricity consumption carbon intensity of the three urban agglomerations showed a monotonic decreasing trend at the annual scale from 2010 to 2021, while green transition development index firstly increased and then slowly declined. The coupling coordination degree between the two fluctuated decreased from 0.50 to 0.47, spatially presenting a decreasing trend from east to west. The overall imbalance in coupling coordination exhibited a gradual annual improvement, with the Dagum Gini coefficient decreasing from 0.10 to 0.08. There were significant spatial disparities in coupling relationship between electricity consumption carbon intensity and green transition development among the three urban agglomerations. The gap of coupling coordination between the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the other two agglomerations was gradually widening, while that between the Sichuan-Chongqing urban agglomeration and the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomera-tion was gradually narrowing. From 2010 to 2015, the decoupling effect between electricity consumption carbon intensity and green transition development of the three urban agglomerations were predominantly characterized by strong decoupling. From 2016 to 2021, negative decoupling became dominant. The average decoupling elasticity value increased from -0.636 to 0.282. By revealing the synergistic evolution between electricity consumption carbon intensity and green transition development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, our results provide an important reference for formulating differentiated carbon reduction policies and advancing ecological conservation and green development at the regional level.

Key words: electricity consumption carbon intensity, green transformation development, coupling coordination, Yangtze River Economic Belt, decoupling effect