Abstract: As a vulnerable species identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Lepidochelys olivacea has attracted extensive attention in recent years. To examine its current distribution and that under future climate change scenarios, we compiled the occurrence data of L. olivacea. With eight predictor variables, including depth, offshore distance, mean primary productivity, minimum primary productivity, mean sea surface temperature, minimum sea surface temperature, mean sea surface salinity, and minimum sea surface salinity, we predicted its distribution in an ensemble species distribution model. The accuracy of the model was evaluated with the parameters of areas under curves (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). The results showed that the AUC and TSS values were 0.96 and 0.81, respectively, indicating a good predictive performance of the ensemble model. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the two most important variables determining the distribution of L. olivacea, with the suitable temperature ranging from 23 to 29 ℃ and salinity below 34. The current distribution range of L. olivacea was between 30° N—25° S. Under future climate scenarios, its distribution range would decrease, especially under the RCP85 scenario in the 2100s (with a 28% reduction in the suitable survival range). The results of model validation showed that it had high accuracy and could make accurate predictions of the distribution. This study would provide references for the development of more rational conservation measures and management strategies.

Key words: Lepidochelys olivacea, species distribution model, suitable habitat, climatic change.