Abstract: Establishing the remote sensing yield estimation model of wheat-maize rotation cultivated land can timely and accurately estimate the comprehensive grain yield. Taking the winter wheat-summer maize rotation cultivated land in Caoxian County, Shandong Province, as test object, using the Sentinel-2 images from 2018 to 2019, we compared the time-series feature classification based on QGIS platform and support vector machine algorithm to select the best method and extract sowing area of wheat-maize rotation cultivated land. Based on the correlation between wheat and maize vegetation index and the statistical yield, we screened the sensitive vegetation indices and their growth period, and obtained the vegetation index integral value of the sensitive spectral period by using the Newton-trapezoid integration method. We constructed the multiple linear regression and three machine learning (random forest, RF; neural network model, BP; support vector machine model, SVM) models based on the integral value combination to get the best and and optimized yield estimation model. The results showed that the accuracy rate of extracting wheat and maize sowing area based on time-series features using QGIS platform reached 94.6%, with the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient were 5.9% and 0.12 higher than those of the support vector machine algorithm, respectively. The remote sensing yield estimation in sensitive spectral period was better than that in single growth period. The normalized differential vegetation index and ratio vegetation index integral group of wheat and enhanced vegetation index and structure intensify pigment vegetable index integral group of maize could more effectively aggregate spectral information. The optimal combination of vegetation index integral was difference, and the fitting accuracy of machine learning algorithm was higher than that of empirical statistical model. The optimal yield estimation model was the difference value group-random forest (DVG-RF) model of machine learning algorithm (R²=0.843, root mean square error=2.822 kg·hm^-2), with a yield estimation accuracy of 93.4%. We explored the use of QGIS platform to extract the sowing area, and carried out a systematical case study on grain yield estimation method of wheat-maize rotation cultivated land. The established multi-vegetation index integral combination model was effective and feasible, which could improve accuracy and efficiency of yield estimation.

Key words: winter wheat-summer maize rotation cultivated land, Sentinel-2 satellite, QGIS, remote sensing yield estimation, vegetation index integral combination