Abstract: The “dual carbon” goal of China is a major strategic decision for solving critical resource and environmental constraints and fulfilling the inherent requirement for harmonious coexistence between human society and nature. Enhancing vegetation carbon sequestration is a crucial pathway to achieving the “dual carbon” goal. Quantitative simulation of regional vegetation carbon sequestration potential is vital for optimizing land use patterns and securing the smooth achievement of the “dual carbon” goal. In this context, we used a similar habitat method to simu-late vegetation carbon sequestration potential under natural conditions on Loess Plateau. Through potential classification-demand categorization-management zoning, we delineated carbon sequestration management zones for Loess Plateau and proposed specific strategies. The results showed that total vegetation carbon sequestration of Loess Plateau increased from 214.32 million t to 354.92 million t from 2000 to 2020, representing a growth of 65.6%. Spatially, a gradual increase was found from northwest to southeast, with high-value areas distributed in mountainous regions, such as the Qinling Mountains, Lyuliang Mountains, Ziwuling, and Zhongtiao Mountains. Urban areas with relatively advanced urbanization and their surrounding zones were characterized by low values. Under natural conditions, the average vegetation carbon sequestration potential on Loess Plateau was 832.71 g·m^-2, representing an increase of 52.3% compared to the 2020 baseline, resulting in an additional carbon sequestration of 185.76 million t. Based on the remaining carbon sequestration potential and the distribution pattern of the production-living-ecology space, the Loess Plateau could be classified into nine categories, including important carbon sink enhancement area, ecological carbon sink restoration area, urban green space development area, ecological carbon sink conservation area, agricultural carbon sink enhancement area, urban carbon sink consolidation area, ecological carbon sink control area, green agricultural development area, and economic development carbon control area. Carbon sequestration enhancement and management strategies specifically tailored to each zone were proposed. The findings would provide valuable support for regional low-carbon development and landscape management under the “dual carbon” goal.

Key words: carbon sequestration and sink enhancement potential, management zoning, optimization strategy, Loess Plateau