Relationship between meteorological, soil, and hydrological drought propagation at different levels in Inner Mongolia, China

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202504.027

Abstract

Abstract: Understanding the meteorological-soil-hydrological drought propagation characteristics can provide technical supports for the formulation of drought mitigation measures. Taking Inner Mongolia as the research area, we utilized the ERA5-Land soil moisture and surface runoff dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from 1980 to 2022, coupled with observation data from 115 meteorological stations, to calculate standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSI), and standar-dized runoff index (SRI) at different temporal scales. Then, we used run theory, Theil-Sen median trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson correlation analysis to investigate the lag effects across different types of droughts and the spatiotemporal distribution of propagation time. The results showed that over 85% of the region showed an intensifying trend for meteorological, soil, and hydrological droughts, with areas showing significant wetting covering less than 1% of the study area. Meteorological drought events were characterized by high frequency, low severity, and short duration, whereas soil drought events exhibited low frequency, high severity, and long duration. Hydrological droughts were dominated by high frequency, low severity, and short-duration events. The response between soil and hydrological drought was stronger than that between meteorological and hydrological drought, implicating that soil moisture deficit induced by soil drought was the primary trigger for hydrological drought. The propagation time for various levels of droughts was predominantly concentrated between two to six months, with higher-grade drought events showing more efficient transition and propagation. The continuity of meteo-rological, soil, and hydrological drought events in central and western Inner Mongolia and soil-hydrological drought events in eastern Inner Mongolia were relatively weak. This research would be of great significance in revealing the mechanisms of regional drought formation and constructing drought propagation models.

Key words: drought propagation, run theory, time-lag effect, propagation time

ZHANG Mengmeng, GUO Enliang, WANG Yongfang, KANG Yao, ZHAO Jiapei, WU Jisiguleng, LUO Xiao. Relationship between meteorological, soil, and hydrological drought propagation at different levels in Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2025, 36(4): 1197-1210.

References

[1] 刘新侠. 农业干旱时滞效应及时空分布模型研究. 博士论文. 邯郸: 河北工程大学, 2019
[2] Lee H, Calvin K, Dasgupta D, et al. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Interlaken, Switzerland: IPCC, 2023
[3] Mishra AK, Singh VP. A review of drought concept. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391: 202-216
[4] 游漫, 贺中华, 张浪, 等. 贵州省农业与气象干旱特征及其响应关系. 水土保持学报, 2022, 36(5): 255-264
[5] 张翔, 黄舒哲, 管宇航. 干旱传播的研究进展、挑战与展望. 地球科学进展, 2023, 38(6): 563-579
[6] Zhang X, Hao ZC, Singh VP, et al. Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 838: 15602.1
[7] 国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2022年国民经济和社会发展统计公报. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2023: 12-29
[8] Cook BI, Mankin JS, Marvel K, et al. Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth's Future, 2020, 8: e2019EF001461
[9] 马景钊. 锡林郭勒草原干旱级联效应及风险评估. 硕士论文. 南京: 南京信息工程大学, 2023
[10] van Loon AF, Stahl K, Di Baldassarre G, et al. Drought in a human-modified world: Reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016, 20: 3631-3650
[11] Wu GY, Chen J, Shi XY, et al. Impacts of global climate warming on meteorological and hydrological droughts and their propagations. Earth's Future, 2022, 10: e2021EF002542
[12] 李耀辉, 周广胜, 袁星, 等. 干旱气象科学研究:“我国北方干旱致灾过程及机理”项目概述与主要进展. 干旱气象, 2017, 35(2): 165-174
[13] 袁星, 马凤, 李华, 等. 全球变化背景下多尺度干旱过程及预测研究进展. 大气科学学报, 2020, 43(1): 225-237
[14] Farahmand A, Reager JT, Madani N. Drought cascade in the terrestrial water cycle: Evidence from remote sensing. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48: e2021GL093482
[15] Ma JZ, Gao JM. Cascading effects of drought in Xilin Gol temperate grassland, China. Scientific Reports, 2023, 13: 10926
[16] Zhang Q, Han LY, Lin JJ, et al. North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018, 131: 719-732
[17] 张强, 姚玉璧, 李耀辉, 等. 中国干旱事件成因和变化规律的研究进展与展望. 气象学报, 2020, 78(3): 500-521
[18] Vogt JV, Naumann G, Masante D, et al. Drought risk assessment and management: A conceptual framework//Vogt JV, ed. EUR 29464 EN. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018: 29-32
[19] Wang W, Ertsen MW, Svoboda MD, et al. Propagation of drought: From meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological drought. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, 2016: 1-5
[20] Zhu Y, Liu Y, Wang W, et al. A global perspective on the probability of propagation of drought: From meteorological to soil moisture. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 603: 126907
[21] Lin H, Yu ZB, Chen XG, et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of meteorological and soil moisture drought on the Tibetan Plateau: Trend, response, and propagation process. Journal of Hydrology, 2023, 626: 130211
[22] 周扬, 李宁, 吉中会, 等. 基于SPI指数的1981—2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(10): 1694-1706
[23] 马岚. 气象干旱向水文干旱传播的动态变化及其驱动力研究. 博士论文. 西安: 西安理工大学, 2019
[24] Xu Y, Zhang X, Hao ZC, et al. Characterization of agricultural drought propagation over China based on bivariate probabilistic quantification. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 598: 126194
[25] Ho S, Tian L, Disse M, et al. A new approach to quantify propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 603: 127056
[26] Xu Y, Zhang XA, Wang X, et al. Propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought under the impact of human activities: A case study in northern China. Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 579: 124147
[27] 顾磊, 陈杰, 尹家波, 等. 气候变化下中国主要流域气象水文干旱潜在风险传播. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(3): 321-333
[28] 石朋, 唐汉, 瞿思敏, 等. 西南地区气象干旱向水文干旱传播的特征. 水资源保护, 2023, 39(1): 49-56
[29] Huang SZ, Li P, Huang Q, et al. The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors. Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 547: 184-195
[30] Guo Y, Huang SZ, Huang Q, et al. Propagation thre-sholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 712: 136502
[31] 佟斯琴. 气候变化背景下内蒙古地区气象干旱时空演变及预估研究. 博士论文. 长春: 东北师范大学, 2019
[32] 王莱林, 范帅邦, 布仁吉日嘎拉, 等. 内蒙古干旱研究进展. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2023, 21(1): 23-36
[33] Zhang WJ, Guo HZ, Wu YJ, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and its driving factors. Sustainability, 2024, 16: 2212
[34] Wan LL, Bento VA, Qu YP, et al. Drought characteristics and dominant factors across China: Insights from high-resolution daily SPEI dataset between 1979 and 2018. Science of the Total Environment, 2023, 901: 166362
[35] An Q, He HX, Nie QW, et al. Spatial and temporal variations of drought in Inner Mongolia, China. Water, 2020, 12: 1715
[36] Pei ZF, Fang SB, Wang L, et al. Comparative analysis of drought indicated by the SPI and SPEI at various timescales in Inner Mongolia, China. Water, 2020, 12: 1925
[37] 刘海, 姜亮亮, 刘冰, 等. 近40年中国干旱特征及其对植被变化的影响. 生态学报, 2023, 43(19): 7936-7949
[38] 柏庆顺, 颜鹏程, 蔡迪花, 等. 近56a中国西北地区不同强度干旱的年代际变化特征. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(5): 722-728
[39] 李尚飞, 戈文艳, 王飞. 1982—2019年中国北方干旱事件特征及其对植被的影响. 水土保持研究, 2023, 30(3): 251-259
[40] 陶际峰, 包玉龙, 郭恩亮, 等. 近40a内蒙古冬旱时空演变特征. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(3): 387-398
[41] 罗敏, 孟凡浩, 王云倩, 等. 气候变化下中国植被GPP与土壤水的互馈关系. 地理学报, 2024, 79(1): 218-239
[42] 金令, 王永芳, 郭恩亮, 等. ERAERA5、GLDAS和FLDAS土壤湿度数据在内蒙古地区的适用性评价. 节水灌溉, 2023(3): 53-60
[43] Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23: 1696-1718
[44] 柴荣繁, 陈海山, 孙善磊. 基于SPEI的中国干湿变化趋势归因分析. 气象科学, 2018, 38(4): 423-431
[45] Thornthwaite CW. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review, 1948, 38: 55-94
[46] Herbst PH, Bredenkamp DB, Barker HMG. A technique for the evaluation of drought from rainfall data. Journal of Hydrology, 1966, 4: 264-272
[47] Shukla S, Wood AW. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35: L02405
[48] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局, 中国国家标准化管理委员会. 气象干旱等级: GB/T 20481—2017. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2017
[49] 靖娟利, 和彩霞, 王永锋, 等. 西南地区1902—2018年干旱时空演变特征分析. 水土保持研究, 2022, 29(3): 220-227
[50] 白子怡, 薛亮, 张翀. 基于土壤湿度与植被覆盖变化的黄土高原生态恢复项目适宜性评价. 水土保持研究, 2019, 26(4): 292-298
[51] 康尧, 郭恩亮, 王永芳, 等. 温度植被干旱指数在蒙古高原干旱监测中的应用. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(7): 2534-2544
[52] 赵家培, 郭恩亮, 王永芳, 等. 基于核温度植被干旱指数的内蒙古植被生长季生态干旱监测. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(11): 2929-2937
[53] Wei YJ, Zhu L, Chen Y, et al. Spatiotemporal variations in drought and vegetation response in Inner Mongolia from 1982 to 2019. Remote Sensing, 2022, 14: 3803
[54] 那音太. 基于SPI指数的近50a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 2015, 29(5): 161-166
[55] 王维坤, 胡月宏, 田松妮, 等. 内蒙古西部沙区气候变化及其植被响应. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(3): 112-118
[56] 温克刚, 沈建国. 中国气象灾害大典(内蒙古卷). 北京: 气象出版社, 2008
[57] Ding YB, Gong XL, Xing ZX, et al. Attribution of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought propagation in different climatic regions of China. Agricultural Water Management, 2021, 255: 106996
[58] Ding YB, Xu JT, Wang XW, et al. Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 283: 111980
[59] Xu HJ, Wang XP, Zhao CY, et al. Diverse responses of vegetation growth to meteorological drought across climate zones and land biomes in northern China from 1981 to 2014. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018, 262: 1-13
[60] 张煦庭, 潘学标, 徐琳, 等. 基于降水蒸发指数的1960—2015年内蒙古干旱时空特征. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(15): 190-199
[61] 杨铭珂, 贺中华, 张浪, 等. 不同时间尺度下气象干旱向水文干旱传播过程. 水土保持学报, 2021, 35(6): 350-360
[62] 王素萍. 中国干旱对全球变暖的响应及对生态系统的影响. 博士论文. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2023
[63] Zhou ZQ, Wang P, Li LQ, et al. Recent development on drought propagation: A comprehensive review. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 645: 132196
[64] 顾子也, 顾磊, 尹家波, 等. 中国陆域干旱的大气环流机制及旱情传播规律. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2024, 54(8): 2674-2689