Abstract: Bidens pilosa, a globally invasive plant species, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and agricultural production in China. To evaluate its potential expansion in China, particularly its habitat suitability under climate change, we predicted its distribution with natural distribution data and 31 environmental variables (climate, soil, topography, and human activity factors) under the MaxEnt model. Future changes in suitable habitats were simulated under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The results showed that the model exhibited high predictive accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. Temperature and precipitation were the primary influencing factors, accounting for 82.6% and 12.6% of the contribution, respectively. Currently, suitable habitats were predominantly located in southern and central-eastern China. The suitable habitats were projected to expand toward eastern and northern Tibet, particularly into ecologically fragile regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, climate change would exacerbate invasion risks.

Key words: Bidens pilosa, biological invasion, MaxEnt model, climate change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau