Abstract: Faced with the intensifying conflicts between conservation and development in national parks and their surrounding areas, scientific identification and precise regulation of ecological space have become critical for safeguarding regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. We evaluated the spatiotemporal variations of landscape ecological risk and ecosystem services in the area surrounding the Wuyishan National Park, using data from 2000 to 2023. We delineated ecological zones using the quadrant method, simulated spatial patterns under 3 scenarios (natural development, urban development, and ecological protection) for 2035 using the PLUS model, and further analyzed the driving mechanisms with the XGBoost-SHAP model. The results showed that landscape ecological risk firstly increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2023, and high-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the western and southeastern parts of the region. Ecosystem services capacity declined overall, carbon storage and habitat quality continuously decreased, and soil conservation and water yield exhibited a fluctuating pattern of increase-decrease-increase. Based on the coupling relationship between landscape ecological risk and ecosystem services, we divided the area into ecological prevention area, ecological conservation area, ecological enhancement area, and ecological restoration area. Ecological restoration area and ecological conservation area accounted for 66.3% of the total area, which constituted the primary spatial focus for current ecological restoration and risk control. By 2035, under the natural development scenario, ecological enhancement area and ecological prevention area would expand compared with 2023, while ecological conservation area and ecological restoration area would shrink. Under the urban development scenario, the proportion of ecological restoration area would increase to 33.8%, indicating an intensification of ecological risk. The ecological protection scenario would significantly enhance ecological conservation functions, but it would have limited effects on improving existing ecological restoration area. The five key driving factors of landscape ecological risk were the human footprint index, annual precipitation, distance to rivers, elevation, and gross domestic product. The five key driving factors of ecosystem services were annual preci-pitation, elevation, human footprint index, distance to secondary roads, and gross domestic product. These findings would provide a scientific basis for ecological sustainability management and spatial governance decision-making in national parks and their surrounding areas.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, ecosystem service, spatial zoning, PLUS model, XGBoost-SHAP driving