Abstract: The responses of subtropical conifer plantation to climate change scenarios were investigated in Qianyanzhou by the processbased physiological-ecological model EALCO (ecological assimilation of land and climate observation). The results showed that CO₂ concentration had the greatest effects on the carbon and water fluxes of the plantation, followed by temperature, and precipitation. CO₂ concentration was the main driving factor for the gross photosynthesis productivity of this plantation ecosystem, and temperature and CO₂ concentration were the key environmental factors controlling the ecosystem respiration. Increasing temperature accelerated the respiration of aboveground part dramatically, while increasing CO₂ concentration had greater effects on soil respiration. The evapotranspiration was enhanced by increasing temperature, but reduced by increasing CO₂ concentration. Under the future climate changing scenario (the year 2100), the net primary productivity of this plantation ecosystem would be increased by 22%, suggesting that this ecosystem is still capable of sequestrating carbon.

Key words: winter wheat, irrigation, planting pattern, water consumption characteristics, dry matter accumulation and distribution.