Abstract: By using CLUE-S model, a scenario analysis was made on the land use/cover change in the upper reaches of Minjiang River from 2000 to 2020,based on the historic development trend and the regulations of policies “natural forest protection” and “grain for green”. In 2000-2020, according to the historic development trend, the forestland area (landscape matrix) in the study region would have a continual decrease while the shrub land and grassland areas would be increased, and the landscape pattern would be more fragmental. The implementation of the policies “natural forest protection” and “grain for green” would effectively increase forestland area, being able to reverse the trend of landscape fragmentation and more optimize the landscape pattern.

Key words: eco-protection policy, landscape dynamics, CLUE-S model, upper reaches of Minjiang River, Pb, barley, toxicity threshold, leaching factor, predicted model.