Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
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CUI Li-fang, WANG Ning, GE Zhen-ming, ZHANG Li-quan
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Abstract: To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the SourcePathwayReceptorConsequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sealevel rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sealevel rise scenarios (the present sealevel rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm·a-1), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm·a-1), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.
CUI Li-fang, WANG Ning, GE Zhen-ming, ZHANG Li-quan. Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.
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URL: https://www.cjae.net/EN/abstract/abstract11191.shtml
https://www.cjae.net/EN/Y2014/V25/I2/553