Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
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LI Chun-fa, CAO Ying-ying, YANG Jian-chao, YANG Qi-qi
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Abstract: Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity, which is the first ecocity in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.
LI Chun-fa, CAO Ying-ying, YANG Jian-chao, YANG Qi-qi. Scenario analysis on sustainable development of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity based on emergy and system dynamics.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.
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URL: https://www.cjae.net/EN/abstract/abstract11952.shtml
https://www.cjae.net/EN/Y2015/V26/I8/2455