Abstract: Accurately capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional forest cover and its response to climate change is of great significance for forest resource management and ecological environment protection. We used statistical methods such us linear regression and correlation analysis, as well as remote sensing change monitoring to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover and its response to climate change from 2000 to 2022 in Shandong Province based on MODIS VCF products and meteorological data. The results showed that the forest co-verage and forest area in Shandong Province increased from 43.0% and 197.06×10⁴ hm² in 2000 to 43.1% and 326.08×10⁴ hm² in 2022, respectively. Spatially, forest coverage grew stepwise from the southwest and northwest to the center and east of Shandong. 90.6% of the forest area of Shandong Province experienced a relative increase in forest cover during 2000-2022. Most of the increased area was concentrated in the central southern mountains and hills and the eastern low mountains and hills. The area expansion of forest cover was primarily located in the lowland areas of Liaocheng, Dezhou, Heze, Jining, and Binzhou, which accounted for 52.3% of the provincial forest area. There was a positive correlation between forest coverage and air temperature, but a negative correlation between forest coverage and precipitation. Air temperature was the main climatic factor influencing the shift in forest coverage during the study period.

Key words: forest coverage, forest area, spatial analysis method, MODIS VCF data, climate change