Abstract: There are obvious contradictions between the development of plateau mountain urban agglomerations and the protection of ecological environment, with the quality of habitat being closely related to land use changes during urbanization. Based on the land use data of central Yunnan urban agglomeration in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of land use and habitat quality, and used PLUS model and InVEST model to predict the status of land use and habitat quality in 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, urban deve-lopment, and ecological protection. The results showed that the artificial surface area of the study area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020, mainly distributed in the areas with very low and medium topographic gradients, most of which were transformed from the cultivated land in the dam area with slow slope. Habitat quality decreased significantly, especially from 2010 to 2020. The area with extremely high habitat quality decreased significantly, while the area with very low habitat quality and low habitat quality increased significantly. In the three scenarios, under the ecological protection scenario, the area of extremely low habitat quality would be the smallest, the area of extremely high habitat quality would be the largest, and the area of deterioration would be the least in 2030, which was more in line with the high-quality economic and social development of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Key words: land use, habitat quality, multi-scenario modeling, central Yunnan urban agglomeration