Abstract: Based on the TM images of 1987 and 2002, the landscape pattern change of Zigui County from 1987 to 2002 was analyzed by using landscape index method; and the simulation forecast of this change in next 50 years was conducted by usi ng Markov model. The results showed that in 1987〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2002, the lan dscape pattern of Zigui County changed dramatically. The area of sparse wood lan d increased greatly while that of upland and shrub land decreased obviously, and the distribution of the areas of different landscape types tended to balance. T he average shape index of landscape had an overall decline, which was represente d by the concentrated and connected distribution of different landscape types, s implification of landscape shape, and obvious human interference. As a whole, th e landscape diversity and fragmentation in Zigui County were improved to some ex tent. In next 50 years, the area of sparse wood land in Zigui would have a rapid increase, followed by that of forestland, while the areas of upland and shrub l and would be declining, and the other landscape types would have a less fluctuat ion in their areas. The main driving forces of the landscape pattern change in Z igui were the relocation of the County and the implementation of forestry polici es.

Key words: subalpine dark coniferous forest, phylogenetic structure, diameter class, community assembly, Sygera Mountains